The Fed maintains interest rates unchanged, Bitcoin fluctuates at a high level, stablecoin licenses will be distributed next year.

A. Market Viewpoint

I. Macroeconomic Liquidity

Currency liquidity shows signs of improvement. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged in five consecutive meetings, maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%. The Fed Chairman did not provide clear guidance on a rate cut in September, emphasizing that inflation risks remain and stating that the labor market is solid, which dampened expectations for a rate cut this year. The dollar index rose to a two-month high, and U.S. stocks continued to reach new highs. The cryptocurrency market performed weaker than U.S. stocks.

2. Overall Market Trends

This week, Bitcoin fluctuated at a high level, while altcoins generally performed weakly, with most cryptocurrencies and stocks declining. The market mainly focused on the Ethereum ecosystem.

Among the top 300 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization:

Top five gainers: LOKA (300%), ZORA (60%), ZBCN (50%), KTA (40%), REKT (40%) Top five declines: TKX (60%), FARTCOIN (30%), M (30%), VIRTUAL (20%), GRASS (20%)

ZORA is a socialfi project that collaborates with Base chain applications. A certain foundation participated in the investment, which has risen 10 times from the bottom.

The old stablecoin USDE and the new stablecoin USDTB of the ENA project continue to generate profits and have established an entity company for ongoing purchases. ENA has partnered with a certain lending platform to release USDE for revolving loans.

CFX is a compliant public chain project, and Hong Kong plans to issue stablecoin licenses in September.

3. On-chain Data

Bitcoin liquidity is facing severe challenges. An early whale sold over 80,000 bitcoins through over-the-counter trading, with a total transaction amount close to 10 billion dollars. However, the market has effectively absorbed this selling pressure, and currently, 97% of the circulating supply remains in profit.

The supply of stablecoins has increased slightly by 1%.

Institutional funds continue to see a net inflow. Ethereum has driven a surge in inflows, with the amount this year already surpassing the total for the entire last year.

The MVRV-Z Score is a long-term trend indicator that reflects the overall profitability of the market based on the total market cost. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is in the top range; when it is less than 2, it is in the bottom range. An MVRV that falls below the key level of 1 indicates that holders are overall in a state of loss. Currently, the indicator is at 2.6, close to the middle region.

4. Futures Market Trends

Futures funding rate: This week's rate is 0.01%, which is at a normal level. A rate between 0.05-0.1% indicates that there is a lot of long leverage, which may suggest a short-term market top; a rate between -0.1-0% indicates that there is a lot of short leverage, which may suggest a short-term market bottom.

Futures open interest: This week, the open interest of Bitcoin futures has started to decline.

Futures Long/Short Ratio: Currently at 1.1, reflecting neutral market sentiment. Retail investor sentiment is usually a contrarian indicator, with below 0.7 indicating fear and above 2.0 indicating greed. It is important to note that the long/short ratio data is quite volatile and has limited reference significance.

5. Spot Market

Bitcoin fell this week, while the Ethereum to Bitcoin exchange rate remained strong, with a few small-cap coins related to the stablecoin concept leading the charge. The market is gradually rotating from Bitcoin to Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies, and it is expected that risks will gradually accumulate in the later stages.

B. Stablecoins and RWA

1. Stablecoin Sector

Financial regulators in a certain region have stated that the first batch of stablecoin issuance licenses may be issued early next year. Initially, holders of compliant stablecoins in this region will need to undergo real-name authentication.

The vice president of the regulatory agency stated at the technical briefing on the regulatory system for stablecoin issuers that the number of licenses issued in the first phase is uncertain and depends on the quality of materials submitted by the applying institutions. The first license is expected to be issued early next year, and it was emphasized that the approval standards are very high. Entering the "sandbox testing" does not guarantee a license.

Regulators have an open attitude towards the fiat currencies supported by stablecoins. Applicants can apply for stablecoin licenses pegged to a single fiat currency or a basket of fiat currencies, but they must clearly specify the types of fiat currencies in their application.

The region will open the first batch of stablecoin issuer license applications from August 1 to September 30, 2025, marking the official implementation of stablecoin regulation. The identities of all compliant stablecoin holders must be verified, and a real-name system will be implemented to strengthen the fight against money laundering and financial crime risks.

A blockchain company under a certain e-commerce platform has registered the names "JCOIN" and "JOYCOIN", which the market speculates may be the names of its stablecoins. The registration description indicates that related services include electronic funds transfers and cryptocurrency financial transactions provided through blockchain technology. The company is one of the participants in the financial regulator's stablecoin issuer sandbox program and has previously collaborated with a certain bank to test cross-border payment solutions based on stablecoins.

A payment platform has announced the launch of a new payment feature in the U.S. market that allows small merchants to accept payments in over 100 different cryptocurrencies, including mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This move significantly expands the platform's service offerings in the cryptocurrency payment sector, encouraging more merchants to participate in digital currency transactions.

The program is mainly aimed at small and medium-sized merchants, aiming to lower the threshold for merchants to use cryptocurrency assets and enhance their flexibility and operational innovation capabilities. As more and more merchants start cryptocurrency payment services, it is expected to promote the popularity and application of cryptocurrency assets in everyday business scenarios.

A certain investment institution will strategically invest 10 million USD in a synthetic dollar stablecoin project. This project allows users to mint USDf by using stablecoins, mainstream cryptocurrencies, or tokenized government bonds as collateral. Currently, the circulation of USDf has exceeded 1 billion USD.

Several reasons for the rapid growth of this project:

1. Strong asset access capability: supports multiple types of assets as collateral.
2. Earning Mechanism: USDf holders can stake to participate in on-chain revenue distribution.
3. Expectations for Points and Airdrops

2. RWA Sector

A working group of a certain country's government has released an important policy report proposing public direction on cryptocurrency regulations. The working group includes several key officials from the Ministry of Finance, the Office of Management and Budget, and the securities regulatory agency, aiming to advance a unified and innovation-friendly cryptocurrency policy framework.

The report presents several core recommendations, including:

1. Request relevant regulatory agencies to clarify the rules regarding the registration, custody, and trading of crypto assets;
2. Promote the Congress to pass relevant bills and clarify regulatory responsibilities;
3. Support blockchain tokenized securities, oppose the issuance of central bank digital currencies, and promote the integration of cryptographic technology into traditional financial infrastructure.

The government of a certain region has released a new digital asset policy statement, confirming its commitment to building a global digital asset innovation center. The region has introduced a licensing system for virtual asset trading platforms and will implement regulations for stablecoins. The government is advancing the draft for virtual asset trading and custody licenses and has established a regulatory sandbox mechanism to encourage the testing of innovative technologies such as blockchain, AI, and tokenized assets.

The region is strengthening cooperation with international organizations and other regions to jointly promote the establishment of digital asset regulatory standards and cross-border anti-money laundering mechanisms. At the same time, local financial regulatory agencies are also implementing related projects, exploring the application of traditional asset tokenization, and promoting the implementation of tokenized bonds, funds, and other products.

A large bank in a certain country acquired a high-rise office building for approximately $680 million, planning to tokenize the asset using blockchain technology and issue digital securities. Institutional investors primarily participate through private REITs, while ordinary investors can purchase tokenized shares for fractional ownership through specific platforms.

This measure lowers the threshold for ordinary investors to participate in high-quality commercial real estate investments. The bank's token issuance balances the needs of institutional and retail investors, integrating traditional REIT structures with digital securities, which is expected to enhance asset liquidity and market transparency.