Global Financial Market Observation: Tariff Impacts and Crypto Assets Dynamics

Macroeconomic Situation

Global financial markets are facing multiple uncertainties. The United States has extended the tariff delay until August 1, but still threatens to raise taxes on imported goods from major trading partners. The tariffs currently in place are equivalent to a tax of 1.5% of GDP on U.S. importers, with annual tariff revenue exceeding $300 billion. The lagging effects of these tariffs on inflation are expected to appear in the July CPI data.

The Federal Reserve faces a policy dilemma: one-year inflation expectations have fallen to 3%, but there is significant pressure from components such as medical costs and university tuition. The labor market presents contradictory signals, with concerns about unemployment easing but the difficulty of reemployment increasing.

Crypto Assets Market Dynamics

The Crypto Assets market is undergoing a critical phase of technical breakthroughs and cycle validation. Bitcoin is facing resistance around $110,000, and analysts believe that if it cannot break through, it may retreat to $100,000; if it breaks through, it is expected to challenge $120,000. Long-term predictions indicate that the peak of this bull market may occur between mid-September and mid-October 2025.

After Ethereum broke through $2600, it is approaching the triangular resistance level of $2630. The market's optimism for Ethereum has also translated to related stocks, with several listed companies seeing significant increases in their stock prices.

The altcoin market is highly volatile. A certain DEX announced the migration of trading on Arbitrum to the Ink network and the elimination of the native coin, resulting in a 60% drop in the coin's value within 24 hours. The internal token competition within the Solana ecosystem remains heated, but the related coins have experienced over a 30% correction.

Market Data Overview

As of July 9, 12:00 HKT:

• Bitcoin: $108,513 (Year-to-date +15.99%), Daily trading volume $21.324 billion
• Ethereum: $2,600.10 (Year-to-date -22.06%), Daily trading volume $15.521 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 67 (Greed)
• Market Share: BTC 64.2%, ETH 9.3%
• Total liquidation amount in the last 24 hours: 121 million USD

ETF Fund Flow

As of July 8:

• Bitcoin ETF: +$8.008 million, net inflow for 4 consecutive days
• Ethereum ETF: +$46.6308 million, net inflow for 3 consecutive days.

Industry Trends

• A well-known investment institution has liquidated its COMP holdings and transferred 400,000 COMP to a trading platform.
• Stablecoin issuers hold $8 billion worth of gold in a secret vault in Switzerland.
• Global gold ETFs increased by $38 billion in the first half of the year, setting a record for average daily trading volume in half a year.
• Multiple listed companies have increased their holdings of Bitcoin or Ethereum, or have initiated related fund management strategies.

The Crypto Assets market is at a critical moment, and investors should closely monitor global economic conditions, regulatory trends, and technological breakthroughs to develop reasonable investment strategies.