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Because of 4 major events last night, including 3 pieces of Unfavourable Information:
(1) Fed Chairman Logan said there are significant upward risks to inflation, and it is premature to consider interest rate cuts now, which is negative for the cryptocurrency market.
(2) The expected inflation rate for the one-year period in May in the United States is 3.2%. The reported value of 3.5% is higher than expected, which is negative for the cryptocurrency market.
(3) The US Consumer Confidence Index for May, expected to be 76, was announced at 67.4, which is favorable for the crypto world.
(4) Approved by the Security Cabinet to expand the operation in Lafa, negative for the cryptocurrency market.
In the future, there will be four scenarios that will be determined by the peace talks between Israel and Hamas and the CPI data next Wednesday.
(1) Successful negotiation + CPI lower than expected: probability 10%
BTC big pump back to $70000, the bull returns quickly, everyone is overjoyed.
(2) Failed reconciliation + CPI lower than expected: Probability 35%
Failed negotiations led to a big dump, while CPI rebounded below expectations.
Favourable Information Unfavourable Information canceled each other out, and the BTC remained at around $60,000 Fluctuation, but altcoin bled and injured
(3) Successful reconciliation + CPI higher than expected: 35% probability
In this case, successful negotiation is not considered a positive development, but rather a way to maintain stability.
CPI higher than expected will definitely result in a big dump, BTC fell to $55000.
(4) Failed peace talks + CPI higher than expected: Probability 20%
Both of them are Unfavourable Information, and they will fall.
BTC dropped below $55,000, defending $50,000.
After reviewing these four situations, the conclusion can be drawn: more bad luck than good luck.
Therefore, drop the expectations.
Even if it falls like this, you can still catch the bottom.
Next Monday, OpenAI will hold a press conference. If WLD rises significantly, remember to sell first.
Favourable Information has turned into Unfavourable Information, buy it back when it falls again.
Israeli military operations in Rafah are expected to last for about two months, according to sources.
The current round of ceasefire negotiations between Palestine and Israel has not made progress, and there may be further negotiations next week.
Israel is fighting on one hand and negotiating on the other hand, while Hamas will hold consultations with various factions in Palestine to reconsider the strategy of ceasefire negotiations.