Fed Chair's speech is imminent, and the market is betting on a rate cut in September.

On August 20, at the annual meeting in Wyoming, Fed Chairman Powell will deliver a key speech this Friday evening Beijing time. Meanwhile, the latest inflation data, which was higher than expected, has prompted some traders to lower their expectations for rate cuts, while still maintaining the judgment of a rate cut next month.

BMO Capital Markets U.S. Rates Strategy Head Ian Lyngen stated in a research report that, "As the market prepares for Powell's speech in Jackson Hole, the biggest risk facing U.S. Treasuries is that the Fed Chair may douse the market's widespread expectation of a rate cut in September."

Currently, there are approximately 325,000 options positions (costing about 10 million USD) that could yield a profit of up to 100 million USD if the Fed lowers interest rates by 50 basis points at the September policy meeting. In addition, the current market pricing indicates that there is about an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the meeting on September 16-17.