The Bitcoin market is undergoing a major transformation. Despite favourable information such as institutional investment, interest rate cut expectations, and pension funds entering the market, the selling pressure from veteran players still dominates the market direction. In this round of market activity, the influence of traditional retail investors has significantly weakened, replaced by large capital that can sway the market.

The cyclicality of Bitcoin still exists, but the magnitude of its extreme fluctuations is gradually narrowing. This change reflects a profound shift in the structure of market participants.

Currently, the main participants in the Bitcoin market have undergone significant changes. In the past, we often assessed retail participation through indicators such as wallet download numbers, search popularity, and the number of exchange account openings. However, these indicators have lost their former importance in today's market. Now, what truly drives the market are large players who can match the strength of thousands of retail investors.

The emerging market dominance mainly comes from two categories: listed companies and ETFs. Listed companies represented by MicroStrategy have already held more than 3% of the world's total Bit supply, with an average cost of about $73,000. These companies have adopted a strategy of continuous buying and long-term holding, effectively becoming the 'perpetual motion machine' in the market.

Another important force is ETFs. Currently, the total amount of Bitcoin held by the ETF system has reached 1.28 million coins, accounting for about 6% of the global total. This represents approximately 55 billion dollars in funds, with an average cost of around 43,000 dollars. The rise of ETFs provides more institutions and retail investors with a way to participate in the Bitcoin market.

Nevertheless, the price of Bitcoin still fell by 33% in the first half of this year, indicating that even these large players have not yet fully grasped the market direction. The market is still seeking a new equilibrium, and the battle between big capital and old players continues.

With this shift in market structure, Bitcoin's investment strategies also need to be adjusted accordingly. Investors need to pay more attention to institutional trends, ETF subscription data, and other large capital flows, rather than solely relying on traditional retail indicators. This battle between new and old forces will continue to shape the future direction of the Bitcoin market.