Blockchain industry development rules: from bubble to value Bear Market nurtures giants

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The development of emerging industries usually follows a pattern: from rise to fall, and then from fall to rise, cycling repeatedly until reaching the peak stage. Such cycles generally experience at least three times or more.

Research shows that the rise of things usually goes through three stages: underestimation, value discovery, and bubble. The past internet industry went through these three stages, and today's blockchain technology is currently in the bubble stage, just like the internet back then.

Looking back at the early 1980s, it was hard for people to imagine the level of dependence we have on computers and the internet today. At that time, most media regarded these technologies as mere toys and dismissed them. Similarly, in the 1990s, many people were pessimistic about Microsoft, believing its stock had reached a ceiling. However, reality often proves otherwise, as Microsoft’s stock has increased by a hundred times compared to before.

There is no doubt that Bitcoin can be said to have given birth to the entire blockchain industry. When it comes to blockchain, it is always inseparable from Bitcoin. To this day, Bitcoin has gone through 11 years, from the dark web to hackers, then to regulation, and later to the highly debated fork events.

Every rise and fall of Bitcoin stirs the hearts of cryptocurrency investors, especially those shocking declines. Technological development is often slow, but the myth of getting rich quickly continues to attract numerous investors. In such a market environment, two different types of projects have emerged in the blockchain industry.

The first type of projects often gain fame for their rapid price rise in a short period. The project parties usually depict an application scenario that seems grand but is actually riddled with loopholes. Their white papers are often lengthy but rarely discuss the specific implementation of the project, while extensively debating price, promotion, and fund allocation. These projects often tout decentralization prominently on their websites or in discussions. They typically pull investors into groups and engage in daily "brainwashing" through price calls. When the project parties withdraw, groups for protecting rights appear like mushrooms after rain, yet many investors remain eager, hoping to achieve high returns one day.

On the contrary, another category of projects may perform mediocrely during a bear market. These projects may occasionally have highlights, with the team consistently working hard and updating the GitHub code daily, but the price of the coin does not rise significantly and may even remain stagnant for a long time. Despite some investors in the community complaining about the coin price, there are always some loyal fans and team members working tirelessly for this technology.

Such projects are usually not keen on participating in high-end summits or large-scale roadshows, but instead focus their limited resources on the most critical matters. For blockchain, the most important thing at present may be the widespread implementation of applications. The only way to achieve this goal is through technological research and development, making blockchain truly enter daily life, rather than just staying at the stage of castles in the air.

By observation, we can find that these two types of blockchain projects perform distinctly differently in a bear market. During a bear market, some projects' speculative tactics are astonishing, while Ponzi schemes and model coins are highly sought after by investors. Frankly speaking, these may just be products of the current bottleneck period in the cryptocurrency market. When market funds have nowhere to go, it seems that calling and pumping for inferior projects has become the only thing to do.

I believe that the eternal truth in investing is that "prices fluctuate around value." When true value is realized, price will no longer be the only measure. Of course, it is an undeniable fact that bull markets present greater potential for wealth. Looking at the historical price trends of Bitcoin or blockchain, the best investment opportunities often arise during bear markets, just as people understand the principle: buy when prices are low. Bear markets are the breeding ground for giants; for example, the hottest projects of 2017, such as Ethereum, Zcash, and NEO, all emerged from the bear market of 2015.

The development of history always moves forward, merciless yet fair and impartial. Once the hottest projects seem to have lost their former glory, such as Ethereum, which is deeply mired in congestion issues; the PoW consensus mechanism long adopted by Bitcoin is under scrutiny due to decentralization and energy consumption concerns; the practical feasibility of Zcash's zero-knowledge proof technology still needs to be verified.

Fortunately, there is always a group of people in this world who are not satisfied with the status quo and are not limited to the present. From the popularity of the Mimblewimble protocol, to the widespread promotion of cross-chain technology, and later the emergence of the PoC consensus mechanism characterized by "anyone can mine." It is not difficult to find that as blockchain is recognized by more and more people, and as technology continues to be updated and iterated, blockchain is far more than just Bitcoin; there are many project teams that silently contribute to the development of the industry.

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WenMoonvip
· 08-07 17:20
The bubble has already hit the bottom.
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SigmaBrainvip
· 08-07 07:40
Holding through a Bear Market is like being a big boss.
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FalseProfitProphetvip
· 08-07 07:35
The fall has slapped me in the face.
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DaoDevelopervip
· 08-07 07:18
interesting parallel with nash equilibrium in game theory... but when's the next cycle kicking in?
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NFT_Therapyvip
· 08-07 07:18
In a Bear Market, buying the dip is not a loss.
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LiquidityHuntervip
· 08-07 07:12
The darkest hour is just before the dawn of the Bear Market.
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