Will our country face a peak in population deaths? 10.41 million deaths in 2022, 11.1 million in 2023, what about last year?

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Mr. Demon King

The deity is not full

August 7, 2025 00:01
Hong Kong, China

4 people

Will our country face a peak in population deaths? 10.41 million deaths in 2022, 11.1 million in 2023, what about last year?
In the past few decades, China's population has been increasing, and everyone has become accustomed to "more and more people." However, starting in 2022, the situation changed. The number of deaths exceeded 10 million for the first time, reaching 11.1 million in 2023, while the birth rate has been declining year after year. This has led many to feel a sense of urgency: is a peak in mortality approaching?
Last year, the number of deaths was indeed slightly less than in 2023, but the birth population only increased by 520,000. Some people breathed a sigh of relief, but can we really be optimistic? To see the reality clearly, we must look back at history.
In the 1950s and 1960s, China experienced its first baby boom. At that time, the country had just risen, and everyone was full of confidence about the future; having children was like adding hope to the family. As a result, the number of births during those years directly increased the population base. Now, this group of people is in their seventies and eighties. Even though medical conditions are much better than before, life always has an end. The concentration of this group of elderly people reaching the end of life is a natural law, not an accident.
The high number of deaths is actually due to this "flow of time" pushing people forward. Japan has long experienced a similar phase, with an average life expectancy close to 87 years, leading to immense pressure on pensions, and the retirement age has been raised directly to 75 years. They have held up through delayed retirement and increasing labor participation rates. China will also follow a similar path.
What really causes anxiety is not the departure of the elderly, but rather the declining number of young people. In recent years, marriage and birth rates have plummeted sharply. Young people are unwilling to have children, and those who can are becoming fewer and fewer. South Korea has already set a precedent; the government spends a lot of money to subsidize childbirth, yet young people would rather raise pets than have babies. Young people in China are also calculating: education, healthcare, housing, and elderly care, it all adds up to immense pressure. As a result, many choose to "lie flat first, and then talk."
If this trend continues, China will truly face a peak in deaths after 2030. By then, not only will many elderly people have passed away, but young people will not be able to compensate for this loss, leading to an increasing labor shortage. By 2050, the total domestic population may drop to around 1.3 billion, with the labor force possibly only numbering 600 million. The figures are cold, but the impact is enormous – economic vitality, the pension system, and social structure will all be shaken.
Seeing this, many people will be angry: why has it come to this? After decades of hard work and development, what we get in return are high housing prices, high education costs, and young people afraid to have children? The reality is that cruel. You can blame reality for being unfair, but you cannot change the laws of population. Because this is not the fault of any one person, but rather a long-term structural issue of the entire society.
But after the anger, we must be clear-headed: the peak of death is inevitable, the key is how to face it. Japan's experience tells us that aging does not equal decline; as long as industrial transformation and social security keep up, a smaller population can still live well. Germany and the Nordic countries have long proven this point. The issue is not the quantity of the population, but rather the quality, efficiency, and system.
The government is actually taking action. Fertility subsidies, extended maternity leave, pain-free childbirth included in health insurance, reduced educational burden, and housing benefits are all policies aimed at reducing the burden on young families. The pension system is also being upgraded, with more institutional care, integrated medical and elderly care, and home-based care gradually being implemented. However, these measures require time to take effect.
For ordinary people, it's important to adjust their mindset as well. Don't wait until the peak of death comes to panic; you need to prepare in advance. Young people should have a sense of crisis and plan for retirement savings and health management early. Middle-aged and elderly people should understand even more: good health is the family's first insurance; don't wait until illness burdens the family.
The peak of death is not the end of the world, but a necessary process. The maturity of a society is not about avoiding death, but about facing it calmly and responding actively. What we need is not panic, but action.
Now let's do something: care for our bodies, support the younger generation in daring to marry and have children, pay attention to policy changes, and vote with our feet to promote social progress. Because the future of a country is not built on slogans, but on the actions of every individual.