Vitalik Discusses the "Year Wheel Model" of Culture and Politics

Vitalik recently published an article proposing the concept of "Cyclic Model of Culture and Politics," and used it to analyze the changes in the current global landscape of artificial intelligence and technology regulation.

The article points out that people generally believe that American technology is more inclined towards open source, while China places more emphasis on closure and control. However, the reality differs significantly from this perception. Vitalik believes that this difference can be explained by the "annual ring model": the attitude towards new things is shaped by the social atmosphere at the time of formation, while the attitude towards old things is determined by inherent inertia. Once these "cultural annual rings" are formed, they are difficult to change.

In analyzing American society, Vitalik pointed out an interesting phenomenon: although people often say they live in a "deeply neoliberal society," in reality, the government's regulatory policies are far from this idea. Various regulatory laws are constantly increasing, and measures such as KYC, copyright regulations, and airport security checks are becoming increasingly strict.

Vitalik also explored the competitive landscape of AI between China and the United States. He pointed out that if one were to predict the situation five years ahead in 2020, most would likely think that the U.S. would lead in open-source AI, while China would excel in closed-source AI. However, the reality is quite the opposite. Vitalik believes that this counterintuitive result can be explained by the "annual ring model."

Specifically, the United States experienced a peak of deregulation in the 1990s, and the cultural attitudes formed during this period profoundly influenced the development of the internet, allowing it to maintain relatively free and open characteristics. Meanwhile, China, as a latecomer in the AI field, adopted a strategy of "commodifying complementary advantages of competitors," which coincided perfectly with the growing preference for open source within the developer community, thus creating a friendly environment for open source AI.

Vitalik emphasized that once something exists for a long enough time, the cultural concepts surrounding it will solidify and become difficult to change. Therefore, creating new behavior patterns is often more effective than changing the status quo. He believes this is precisely the appeal of the cryptocurrency and Web3 space: they provide an independent technological and cultural environment that is not excessively constrained by existing "status quo biases," allowing for the free exploration and experimentation of new ideas.