Crypto Market Weekly Overview (June 17 - 23)

Macroeconomic Environment and Market Overview

This week, the liquidity of the currency is showing an improving trend. The Federal Reserve expects inflation to continue to improve moderately. The U.S. Dollar Index is nearing a new high for 2024, with its strength mainly influenced by interest rate factors and political instability. The U.S. stock market as a whole maintains an upward trend, with substantial global funds pouring into the U.S. stock market, approximately $30 billion in new funds flowing in over the past month. In contrast, the crypto market has significantly lagged behind the U.S. stock market.

Crypto Market Performance

This week, Bitcoin showed a volatile downward trend, while the exchange rate of Ethereum against Bitcoin strengthened. The altcoin market performed weakly, and the European Cup events distracted market attention. It is expected that the Ethereum ETF will be approved in early July, with the market rebound mainly focusing on the Ethereum ecosystem.

Notable projects include:

1. LDO: As a leading project in the Ethereum staking field, it will continue to expand its re-staking business in the future. The US SEC's ruling that Ethereum is not classified as a security is favorable for the development of Ethereum ETF staking business in the future.

2. ZK: A ZK Layer 2 solution on Ethereum, supported by liquidity provided by professional market makers, with average listing performance. It is worth noting that the Ethereum network's Gas fees have reached an 8-year low.

3. ZRO: A highly anticipated cross-chain bridge project, although the airdrop strategy is relatively conservative, its market capitalization is already close to similar projects.

Bitcoin Market Analysis

on-chain data

The market is in a stage of consolidation with reduced volume. Despite significant price fluctuations, Bitcoin investors as a whole remain profitable. However, investor interest has declined, with both the spot and derivatives markets, as well as on-chain trading volume, showing a continuous shrinking trend. Typically, after Bitcoin reaches a new high, the market requires ample time to digest the subsequent selling pressure.

The market capitalization of stablecoins remains stable, and the recent trend of capital inflow has slowed down.

Institutional funds have continuously seen net outflows. However, Ethereum has experienced a large-scale net inflow against the trend due to the upcoming launch of a spot ETF.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-Z Score reflects the overall profitability of the market. Currently, this indicator is at 2.1, which is at a medium level, indicating that the market is neither overheated nor too cold.

futures market

The futures funding rate has decreased slightly this week. Currently, the rate is at a neutral level, showing no significant bullish or bearish tendency.

The open interest in Bitcoin futures continued to decline this week.

The futures long-short ratio is 2.3, indicating that retail investors are showing high bottom-fishing sentiment, and the market may not have reached the bottom yet. It is important to note that retail sentiment is typically viewed as a contrarian indicator.

spot market

Bitcoin and Solana are both showing a weekly adjustment trend, and it is expected that the adjustment may continue until early August. Ethereum, TON, and the BASE ecosystem are performing strongly. The Ethereum ETF is expected to be approved in early July, TON is about to go live on mainstream exchanges, and BASE is bringing in new wallet user traffic. It is expected that the Ethereum ecosystem will become the main focus of the market in the coming month.

DeFi Market Overview

This week, the total locked value in DeFi is ( TVL ), dropping to 100.9 billion USD, with a weekly decline of 9.6%. The TVL of mainstream public chains generally fell, with only MERLIN chain slightly rising by 3% and TON chain significantly increasing by 15%. The market is currently in an adjustment phase, and in the short term, the TON and Solana ecosystems are worth paying close attention to.

NFT Market Trends

This week, the floor prices of blue-chip projects in the NFT market have generally dropped significantly. CryptoPunks fell by 13%, BAYC by 17%, Pudgy Penguins by 28%, and Azuki by 23%. Only Milady increased by 4% against the trend.

The overall trading volume of the NFT market has slightly decreased, with blue-chip project trading volume dropping by about 20% this week. The number of first-time and repeat buyers is also gradually decreasing. Overall, the NFT market remains sluggish, and the market environment is quite severe.