The financial market welcomes the "super 72 hours", with the Ethereum range of 4000 to 4100 USD becoming crucial.

Market Observation

Recently, trade representatives from China and the U.S. held constructive talks in Stockholm, Sweden, and both sides agreed to extend some tariff measures for 90 days, bringing a certain degree of relief to the market. However, the global market continues to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Although it is widely expected that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will keep interest rates unchanged this week, the timing of the first rate cut has become the focus. Market analysts have differing views on this, with some predicting a rate cut starting in September, while others believe it may be delayed until December or later.

In this context, some strategists warn that the global central bank's easing policies, relaxation of financial regulations, and shifts in government policies may give rise to a larger bubble driven by retail investors, liquidity, and volatility. With important events such as U.S. GDP data, the Federal Reserve's decision, earnings reports from technology companies, and employment reports approaching, the market is entering a critical 72-hour period, the outcome of which will affect the market trends for the remainder of the year.

The Ethereum market is undergoing a structural transformation, with an increase of over 50% since July. Analysts believe that this round of growth is driven by favorable macro policies, capital inflows, and a shift in investor sentiment. The legislative process for cryptocurrencies injects confidence into the market, while the inflow of funds into spot ETFs serves as a direct catalyst. Ethereum is transitioning from "fuel for the world computer" to "yield-bearing reserve asset." Its staking characteristics attract institutional funds seeking actual returns. The relative decline of Bitcoin's market dominance may also prompt capital to flow into Ethereum and other mainstream cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin's price is consolidating in the range of $117,000 to $120,000, with analysts divided in their views. Some expect it may first dip to the $108,000 area, while others believe that after breaking through $120,000, it could directly surge to $125,000. Investors are advised to continue holding long positions or wait for clearer entry opportunities.

Ethereum returned to $3800, with analysts generally bullish. Its futures open interest hit a new high of $5.8 billion, indicating a continuous inflow of leveraged funds. On-chain activity data also shows a significant increase in network activity. The $4000 to $4100 range is considered a key focus for further upward movement.

It is worth noting that today marks the tenth anniversary of Ethereum, with its price rising from $0.3 to $3800. The Layer 2 network Linea announced its token economics plan, intending to airdrop 10% of the tokens to early users. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will open the first batch of stablecoin issuer license applications on August 1 and requires real-name verification for compliant stablecoin holders.

Key Data

• Bitcoin: $117,951, Year-to-date +26.06%
• Ethereum: $3,803.76, Year-to-date +14.12%
• Fear and Greed Index: 74 (Greed)
• Market share: BTC 60.7%, Ether 11.9%
• 24-hour liquidation data: 128,069 people were liquidated, with a total amount of 301 million USD.

ETF Fund Flows

• Bitcoin ETF: +$79.9781 million, sustained net inflow for 4 days
• Ethereum ETF: +$219 million, continuous net inflow for 18 days

Today's Outlook

• Ethereum 10th Anniversary Celebration Live Stream
• Federal Reserve interest rate decision and press conference
• U.S. initial jobless claims and core PCE price index released

Hot News

• Anchorage Digital bought $1.19 billion in Bitcoin within 9 hours.
• Ark Invest has purchased an additional $15.3 million in BitMine shares.
• Linea announces the token distribution details, with 9% distributed through airdrops.
• Multiple addresses accumulated a total of 648,000 Ether within half a month.
• The listed company 180 Life plans to transform into an Ethereum treasury reserve company.