Bitcoin's inflow of funds into ETFs has bounced back towards $115,000—however, traders are still pricing in tail risks: Asia Morning Briefing | CoinDesk JAPAN

• Bitcoin bounced back to a level above $115,000 after a drop in which over $1 billion in long positions were liquidated.
• The inflow of funds by institutional investors shows signs of stabilization, and the asset management company Bitwise has reported a net inflow of 18.74 million Dollars.
• The risk-hedging movements observed in the market indicate investor caution, with a 49% probability that Bitcoin will fall below $100,000 by the end of 2025.

At the start of trading in East Asia, Bitcoin (BTC) fluctuated at just over $115,000. Following a drop last week, over $1 billion in leveraged longs were liquidated, and after temporarily reaching around $113,000, it has shown a slight bounce back.

Funds inflow from institutional investors is showing signs of stabilization, with asset management company Bitwise reporting a net inflow of 18.74 million Dollars, indicating a possibility of a reversal after last Friday's record outflow from cryptocurrency ETFs, which was one of the largest in history.

Bitcoin has fallen for three consecutive Fridays, driven by several bearish macroeconomic factors. Weakness in U.S. employment data and new tariff measures have expanded risk-averse sentiment in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets. Altcoins have been particularly hard hit, with Solana (SOL) dropping about 20% over the week and Ethereum (ETH) also declining by about 10%.

However, despite the decline, QCP Capital maintains a cautious yet optimistic stance.

The company pointed out in its report on the 4th that "the extensive structural framework remains sound," referencing that Bitcoin recorded its highest monthly closing price in July.

QCP regards this decline as a liquidation of leverage and analyzes it as not a reversal of the trend. They pointed out examples where adjustments after rises have previously paved the way for new upward movements.

That said, the risk hedging movements observed in the market indicate that investors are not ruling out the possibility of further declines. The prediction market Polymarket estimates the probability of Bitcoin falling below $100,000 by the end of 2025 at 49%, which is a 2% increase from the previous day.

The price of Bitcoin reflects a tense market situation that incorporates downside tail risks (which rarely occur but can have significant impacts if they do), despite positive long-term fundamentals such as regulatory clarity, the expansion of stablecoins, and efforts toward asset tokenization.

The next move may occur during Asian trading hours when U.S. cryptocurrency ETF issuers report fund inflows. It is usually announced around noon Hong Kong time.

If the inflow of funds into cryptocurrency ETFs, including Bitcoin, continues and the implied volatility begins to decrease, the market may support the "buying on dips" scenario and move towards dispelling macroeconomic concerns.

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