Bitcoin Next Bull Run Peak Forecast Analysis

By studying historical data, we can observe the patterns of past bull run cycles, allowing us to better predict the current cycle. This article will delve into the possible timing and levels of the next Bitcoin price peak.

Pi Cycle Indicator

The Pi Cycle Top indicator is one of the popular tools for analyzing Bitcoin cycles. This indicator monitors the 111-day and 350-day (multiplied by 2) moving averages, and when these two lines cross, it often indicates that Bitcoin has reached a cycle peak, which can usually be predicted accurately within a few days.

Currently, due to the horizontal price movement, these two levels have been separated for months. However, we are now starting to see the 111-day trend rise again, and the two lines are beginning to narrow the gap.

By observing the differences between the top and bottom indicators of the Pi cycle, we can more clearly locate Bitcoin's position in the bull-bear cycle. This oscillation indicator is once again showing an upward trend, suggesting that the next bull run for Bitcoin may be approaching, similar to the cyclical patterns of 2016 and 2020.

Historical Cycle Review

Looking back, the bull run cycles of Bitcoin usually present similar stages: rapid growth in the initial phase, calm in the mid-phase, a second peak in the later phase, followed by a significant correction, and then the start of a new round of increase.

The 2016 cycle experienced two peaks and one trough, followed by a full bull run. This is very similar to the current trend. Bitcoin prices reached new highs after two pullbacks.

The pattern of the 2020-2021 cycle is slightly different, but similar trajectories can still be observed. Bitcoin prices reached two peaks, one during the initial rapid rise period and the other at the peak of the bull run when it reached its historical high.

Potential Time Prediction

Based on the recent upward trend of the Pi cycle top and bottom oscillators, we can simulate different growth scenarios:

• If the cycle pattern of 2021 is repeated, the 111-day and 350-day moving averages may cross around the end of June 2025, at which point Bitcoin may reach its peak.

• If the cycle pattern of 2017 is repeated, the moving averages may not cross until the end of January 2026, indicating that the peak will appear slightly later.

Price Prediction

Historically, Bitcoin's price during peak periods often significantly exceeds the moving average. During the 2017 bull run, Bitcoin's highest price reached three times the moving average. However, as the market matures, the returns of each cycle show a decreasing trend, which means that Bitcoin's price may not surpass its moving average as dramatically as it did in the past.

If Bitcoin follows a similar pattern to the 2021 cycle, with the price approximately 40% higher than the moving average, then the peak could reach around $339,000. Considering the diminishing returns factor, the price may only be about 20% higher than the moving average, in which case the peak price in mid-2025 would be close to $200,000.

If the extended cycles of 2017 repeat in a diminishing returns manner, Bitcoin could reach a peak of $466,000 in early 2026. More moderate growth expectations may lead to a peak price around $388,000.

Conclusion

Although these predictions are based on reliable historical data, they cannot guarantee absolute accuracy. Each cycle has its unique influencing factors, including the economic environment, investor sentiment, and regulatory changes. The diminishing returns trend may even lead to prolonged cycles, reflecting the continuous maturation of the Bitcoin market. Investors must make cautious decisions when referencing these analyses, considering multiple factors comprehensively.