The weekly Bitcoin price has precisely reached the May high, and from a technical perspective, this is a healthy pullback. However, from the ASR weekly channel analysis, there is currently over a 50% probability of the emergence of the quote path three movement.

If the next weekly candle can form an engulfing bullish candle, the bullish trend is still expected to continue into the overbought area (around 140,000 USD). However, if the market enters a prolonged consolidation phase, or even sideways or pulls back to September, there is a 70% chance that it indicates the end of the bull market.

It is worth noting that expectations of interest rate cuts are typically seen as a positive factor, but as the actual rate cut approaches, its impact may turn negative. Especially against the backdrop of the current non-farm payroll data, the act of cutting rates itself may have already become a negative factor.

Currently, the cryptocurrency market is at a critical juncture. Investors need to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, while also paying attention to changes in the global economic situation. Additionally, Ethereum is approaching its tenth anniversary, which could bring new momentum to the market.

In this complex market environment, investors should remain cautious and pay attention to various factors that may influence market trends, including but not limited to regulatory policies, macroeconomic data, and the development trends of major cryptocurrency projects. At the same time, it is also important to pay attention to the reserve strategies of listed companies regarding cryptocurrencies, as this may have a profound impact on the entire market.