Recent movements in the financial market have attracted the attention of many investors. Morgan Stanley has expressed a bullish outlook on the S&P 500 index, setting a target at 7200 points. However, this widespread optimistic sentiment may conceal risks.

Looking back at history, we find that market tops are often accompanied by highly consistent optimistic expectations. Whether it was the internet bubble at the end of 1999, the subprime mortgage crisis in mid-2007, or the Web3 and metaverse craze at the beginning of 2021, all of this is confirmed. Currently, the valuation and concentration of the AI sector in the US stock market even exceed the levels of 2021, which undoubtedly warrants caution.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has risen from $20,000 to $120,000, a sixfold increase. Many investors are anticipating its further climb to $200,000. However, we need to recognize that Bitcoin may follow its own cyclical patterns—experiencing a correction, adjustment, and impact every four years.

Ethereum, although receiving widespread follow and expected to break through $10,000, has not yet surpassed its historical high. In this case, if everyone firmly believes that interest rate cuts will trigger a bullish market, it may precisely indicate that the bullish market lacks the necessary counterpart and is difficult to sustain.

For investors, controlling risk is more important than pursuing profit maximization. The current excitement in the cryptocurrency market is somewhat similar to the gold rush in San Francisco. In such a market environment, those who are likely to profit are the 'shovel sellers'—that is, participants who provide airdrops, issue tokens, or share in project profits.

Overall, in this market full of uncertainty, it is crucial to remain rational and vigilant. Do not be deceived by short-term frenzy, but rather focus on long-term value and risk management. Whether in the stock market or the cryptocurrency market, we need to keep a clear mind and make wise investment decisions.