Claude AI and ChatGPT Predict Bitcoin Price: 65% Probability of Breaking Previous High, Key Resistance Level and Institutional Coin Hoarding Trend Depth Analysis (July 31)

Bitcoin is currently priced at $117,832.50, with a daily fluctuation of a slight fall of 0.10%, in a key consolidation phase near historical highs. The combined analysis of Claude and ChatGPT's dual AI models indicates a 65% probability of an upward breakout, with a target range of $125,000 to $140,000. The report provides a detailed breakdown of technical structures, institutional coin hoarding dynamics, on-chain scarcity, and bullish divergence signals, along with a 90-day detailed price path forecast and risk management strategies.

[Current Market Positioning and Technical Structure]

The current price of Bitcoin is $117,832.50, forming a "compressed spring" pattern, with a daily fluctuation range of only $1,123 (0.95%). The technical aspect maintains a strong bullish pattern:

• Key EMA support levels: 20-day EMA (116,935.93 USD, -0.8%), 50-day EMA (112,724.93 USD, -4.3%), 100-day EMA (107,357.63 USD, -8.9%), 200-day EMA (100,041.53 USD, -15.1%) constitute a solid support zone.

(Source: TradingView)

• Neutral bullish divergence in RSI: 57.61 is in the neutral range. Approaching historical highs but not overbought (>70), forming a bullish divergence signal.
• MACD Momentum Accumulation: Main line -469.62 USD slightly bearish, but the histogram +2,330.79 USD shows that buying momentum is accumulating.

(Source: TradingView)

• Institutional accumulation signal: The daily trading volume is only 6.59K BTC, combined with an ATR (Average True Range) as high as 106,893.57 and low volatility forming a "volatility paradox", indicating that a significant market movement is approaching.

[2025 Trend and Historical Patterns]

Bitcoin reported at $102,405 at the beginning of the year, and fluctuated between $107,500 and $110,000 from February to May. After closing at $110,467 in June, it surged strongly to nearly $119,850 in July. Currently, it remains stable at a high level without significant depth corrections, with dual models indicating that institutions are continuously engaging in Coin Hoarding rather than speculative overheating, which aligns with the historical characteristics of accumulation before a breakout.

(Source: TradingView)

[Enterprise-level Bitcoin Reserves and Market Structure Evolution]

Institutional adoption is the core bullish catalyst:

• Whale Accumulation: MicroStrategy invested $2.46 billion to increase its holdings by 21,021 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 628,791 BTC (valued at $74 billion).
• Policy Favorable: The SEC has approved the physical subscription and redemption mechanism for spot Bitcoin ETFs, removing barriers for institutional participation; JPMorgan - mainstream CEX collaboration opens up traditional banking channels.
• Corporate Reserve Trends: Smarter Web Company holds over 2,000 BTC, Canaan ( and others have incorporated Bitcoin into their core reserve assets.
• On-chain scarcity intensifies: Circulation of 19.89 million BTC (accounting for 94.7% of total supply), market cap of $2.34 trillion, FDV of $2.47 trillion. Institutional coin hoarding leads to a continuous decline in exchange reserves, highlighting the supply tightening effect.

Social Sentiment and Contrarian Indicators

• Retail investors show a divergence in sentiment: LunarCrush data indicates that the AltRank has dropped by 229 positions, and the Galaxy Score has fallen by 13 points to a yearly low, but overall sentiment remains at 81% positive (with interaction volume at 90.98 million and mentions at 292,000).
• Bullish Signal Interpretation: The classic "smart money layout" signal is formed during the institutional accumulation phase, accompanied by low retail sentiment. History shows that such divergences often lead to more rapid breakout trends. The current 19.35% social dominance indicates that retail attention has not yet overheated, leaving room for FOMO upward potential.

[Regulatory Policies and Corporate Bitcoin Allocation]

Clarification of regulations provides certainty:

• The White House's crypto policy report (though it does not include details on BTC strategic reserves) promotes the construction of a framework.
• The implementation of the "GENIUS Act" reduces compliance risks
• Frequent announcements of corporate Bitcoin allocations, with the trend of verification institutions being the strongest catalyst in the past 90 days.

[90-Day Scenario Probability and Price Path]

• ► Bull Market Breakout (65% probability | Target 125K-140K USD)

  • Trigger Condition: Volume (greater than 8K-10K BTC/day) breaks through the resistance of 118,482 USD.

  • Timeline: Breakthrough within 2 weeks → Attack resistance zone of 120,000-122,000 USD on the 30th → Pullback confirmation between 30-45 days → Impact on 125,000-130,000 USD between 60-75 days → Extended target of 135,000-140,000 USD.

    ![])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-87a9b3933a-10da3c7b50-153d09-7649e1(

    (Source: TradingView)

  • Key indicators: Stabilize at the psychological level of 120,000 USD, with continuous institutional capital flow.

• ► Depth Pullback (25% Probability | Target 100K-112K USD)

  • Trigger conditions: Breakout failure, test EMA support zone (20-day 116,936 → 50-day 112,725 → 100-day 107,358 dollars)

    ![])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-87a9b3933a-1b983dde45-153d09-7649e1(

    (Source: TradingView)

  • Main reasons: macro black swan, regulatory headwinds, or institutional sell-off (but the model considers the probability low).

  • Cycle: 30-45 days to bottom out, then stabilize and recover.

• ► Extended consolidation (10% probability | Range $115K-$120K)

  • Features: Continuous low-volume sideways movement for 45-60 days, institutions buying the dip, technical indicators reset.

    ![])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-87a9b3933a-15f090c824-153d09-7649e1(

    (Source: TradingView)

  • Endgame: Still inclined to break upwards under fundamental support.

[Technical Target Levels and Core Price Range]

• Resistance Level:

  • Immediate resistance: $118,482 (breakthrough requires volume)

  • Key Resistance Zone: $119,000-$122,000

  • Upside target: $125,000 (+6%) → $130,000 (+10%) → $135,000-140,000 (+15-19%) → $150,000 (+27%)

    ![])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-87a9b3933a-f538c33d25-153d09-7649e1(

    (Source: TradingView)

• Support Level:
  • Short-term: $116,936 (20-day EMA)
  • Trend Line: $112,725 (50-day EMA)
  • Long-term: $107,358 (100-day EMA) → $100,042 (200-day EMA)

[Cryptocurrency Investment Risk Management Strategies]

• Main risks: Federal Reserve policy shift, geopolitical conflicts, regulatory fluctuations, technical level breakdown.
• Fluctuation Warning: High ATR indicates a potential daily fluctuation of 10-20%, position sizing must be strictly controlled.
• Hedging Plan:
  • Tiered Take Profit: $125,000/$135,000/$150,000
  • Hard stop loss level: $107,000 (below the 100-day EMA)
  • Low leverage/options tools to cope with high fluctuation periods

Conclusion: The fourth quarter may initiate a historic market trend.

The comprehensive assessment by the dual AI models shows that Bitcoin is on the eve of a breakthrough golden window:

1. Technical Analysis: The tight consolidation near historical highs forms a "compressed spring" pattern.
2. Funding: The surge in corporate Bitcoin reserves has intensified on-chain scarcity.
3. Sentiment: Institutional Coin Hoarding and Retail Caution Create a Bullish Divergence
4. Policy aspect: Clear regulations eliminate barriers for institutions to enter.

Baseline scenario trajectory (probability of 65%): Break through $118,500 within 10-14 days, move towards $120,000-$122,000 on day 30, consolidate and retest on day 45, and then accelerate towards $125,000-$130,000 within 75-90 days.

Timeline Expectation:

Day 1-14: Breakthrough at 118,500 USD, volume confirmation

Days 15-30: Initial momentum pushes towards the resistance level of 120,000-122,000 USD.

Days 31-45: Consolidation and Testing Support Levels

Day 46-75: Recovery of the upward trend, advancing towards $125,000-$130,000

Day 76-90: May further push towards $135,000-$140,000

The current technical indicators suggest that Bitcoin is ready to embrace the next round of a bull market, and the narrow consolidation pattern will serve as the starting point for a historic rebound in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The accelerated acceptance by institutional investors, the gradual clarification of regulations, and the dynamics of supply scarcity support higher price targets, while the contrarian sentiment of retail investors provides the best entry conditions for price increases driven by broader market recognition.