Zhou Yanling: The Fed meeting on July 31 is coming. Today's Bitcoin and Ether latest trend forecast analysis and strategy.

The Fed meeting tonight, in my personal opinion, is unlikely to result in a rate cut. However, it is important to pay attention to the discussions and arrangements regarding the potential rate cut. Currently, there is a situation within the Fed where two governors (Waller/Bowman) have publicly expressed their support for a rate cut in July for various reasons, which indicates a growing internal divergence, leaning more towards dovish. The Fed's concerns still revolve around the negative impact of tariffs on the economy and inflationary pressures. If Powell continues to mention phrases like "wait and see, needs economic data support" in the subsequent press conference, it would be considered hawkish, while mentioning "discussions about rate cuts" would be seen as dovish. In addition, the U.S. PCE year-on-year/month-on-month data on Thursday is also worth noting. The CPI data shows a slight increase in related service industry segments, which may provide a basis for the Fed not to cut rates in July, but it also exacerbates the possibility of stagflation. Specific reactions need to be monitored in the market.
Currently, the price trend of the coin shows a slight consolidation after a minor pullback on the daily chart. Yesterday closed with a bearish candle, indicating that the bearish forces dominate in the short term. On the hourly chart, multiple consecutive K-lines show a high-level retracement, and the volatility range is gradually narrowing, which may indicate a brief consolidation phase. The MACD on the hourly chart is below the zero line, with both DIF and DEA being negative, but the MACD histogram is starting to weaken, suggesting that bearish momentum is waning. The RSI on the hourly chart is at 45.56, not entering the overbought or oversold zones, indicating that the market remains in a relatively balanced state, but overall is leaning towards weakness. In the EMA hourly chart, EMA7 diverges downwards from both EMA30 and EMA120, indicating that the directions of short-term, medium-term, and long-term moving averages are consistent, and the downward trend is likely to continue for the time being.
Zhou Yanling's 7.31 Bitcoin trading strategy:
1. Short from 119300 to 118500, stop loss above 120500, target 117000 to 116200.
2. More than 116100-117000, stop loss above 115000, target 118300-119000
Zhou Yanling 7.31 Ether trading strategy:
1. More than 3710-3750, stop loss below 3670, target 3850-3890
2. Short 3900-3870, stop loss above 3950, target 3780-3740.
[The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article review and publication may have delays, and the strategies may not be timely. Specific operations should be based on Yanling's real-time strategies.]
This article is exclusively shared by senior analyst Zhou Yanling. The author has been engaged in financial market investment research for over ten years and currently mainly analyzes and guides the operations of BTC, ETH, DOT, DOGE, LTC, FIL, EOS, XRP, BCH, ETC, BSV, and other cryptocurrencies in contract/spot trading. The author possesses a solid theoretical foundation and practical experience, excels in combining technical and fundamental analysis, emphasizes capital management and risk control, and has a steady and decisive trading style. The author is recognized by many investment friends for their easy-going and responsible personality combined with sharp and decisive trading.