In this cycle, my experiences and lessons ( down )

Host: Alex

Guest: Colin, On-chain Nomad

Assessment of the Current Stage and Response Strategies

Colin:

• We are currently approaching the end of the cycle, rhyming with the second peak trend of 2021.
• Crypto section: Liquidated at the beginning of the year, hedging with a 1x margin short position to receive Funding Fee
• US stocks part: fully invested in April, currently no plans for changes

On-chain nomads:

• It is not a primary bull market now.
• 90% of the position has been converted to USDT, 10% BTC is held long-term
• Recently, on-chain liquidity has warmed up, and working hours have correspondingly increased.

Changes in Investment Difficulty in This Cycle

Colin:

• There has not been a significant change in overall difficulty.
• The independent upgrade of BTC is the most special point in this round.
• The entry of institutions increases the difficulty, but it actually makes it easier for those who simply hold BTC.

On-chain Nomads:

• There will always be opportunities at different stages that can earn you a lot of alpha.
• The primary market is like a cart dropping gold nuggets; one should try to get close to market opportunities.
• Do not give yourself the psychological suggestion of "it's harder now".

The most correct operation of this round cycle

On-chain Nomads:

1. "Leading Strategy": Participate in leading assets with strong consensus in the sector.
2. Dynamic Rebalancing: Regularly adjust position structure to avoid significant drawdowns

Colin:

• Accumulate BTC in batches from September to December 2023
• Fully re-entered my US stock positions in early April this year.

Mistakes and Experiences in This Round of Cycle

Colin:

• Over-reliance on Ethereum's second-tier status
• Lesson: Do not hold too strong a belief in any cryptocurrency other than BTC.

On-chain Nomads:

1. Don't gamble on price fluctuations, look for asymmetrical opportunities.
2. Strictly set stop-loss, including profit stop-loss.
3. Investment research must be thorough, and one should not deceive oneself.

Preparation for Cross-Circle Investment

Colin:

• Opportunities in the cryptocurrency market are decreasing, but there are still more opportunities than in other mature markets.
• The increase in difficulty is mainly reflected in obtaining excess rewards.

On-chain Nomads:

• Plan to allocate in three directions: cryptocurrency, US stocks, and Hong Kong stocks.
• The goal is to reduce risk and expand the trading strike zone.

Judgment on the Shanzhai Season

Colin:

• The essence is a timing game, and one must consider the timing.
• Currently pessimistic about the altcoin season

On-chain Nomads:

• The primary market needs to recuperate.
• Now more emphasis is placed on projects operated by market makers.

Alex:

• The team is not optimistic about the sustainability of altcoins.
• The fundamentals are generally poor, and valuations continue to collapse.

Are you still bullish on Ethereum?

Alex:

• The fundamentals have not improved much, making it difficult to reach 10000.
• The rise is mainly driven by the capital flywheel of cryptocurrency companies.
• Expecting a tenfold increase in performance capacity

Colin:

• The non-limited feature makes the reserve effect inferior to BTC.
• Lack of fundamental support, may be a bubble
• Emotions should not be a reason for buying.