At the beginning of 2025, the crypto market fell into adjustment.

At the beginning of the new year, the crypto market has entered a brief adjustment. Bitcoin experienced a pullback after breaking through the $100,000 mark, hitting a low of $92,600 during the U.S. trading session on Tuesday, a drop of nearly 10% from Monday's high. The current quote is $94,212.

Other cryptocurrencies have also generally declined. Ethereum has dropped to $3300, Solana has fallen below $200, and the altcoin sector has overall decreased by about 10%. This wave of adjustment has also affected the US stock market, with many leading mining companies' stock prices falling by 5-8%.

Despite the limited decline, market sentiment has cooled as Bitcoin is close to its price at the beginning of the year. Some analysts predict that Bitcoin may drop to around $70,000 in the near future.

The recent decline is mainly influenced by the following factors:

1. US macro data exceeds expectations. In November, JOLTS job openings broke 8 million, reaching a 6-month high. The December ISM Services PMI recorded 54.1, above expectations. Strong economic data may prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance and delay interest rate cuts.

2. The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that the pace of interest rate cuts may slow in 2025, with only a 75 basis point reduction for the entire year.

3. The statement from the incoming U.S. president has raised concerns. Reports suggest that he is considering declaring a "national economic emergency" to seek legal grounds for imposing high tariffs universally. This has triggered worries in the market about the global economic outlook.

4. The U.S. Department of Justice has been authorized to liquidate approximately 69,000 bitcoins, valued at about $6.5 billion. This news has further intensified panic in the market.

Despite short-term pressure, there are still positive factors in the market outlook:

1. The Coinbase vs. SEC case has made progress, and the legality of cryptocurrencies may soon receive an important ruling.

2. The CFTC chairman has resigned, and the Trump team is looking for a crypto-friendly successor, indicating a consensus for regulatory easing.

3. Large investors take the opportunity to increase their holdings. Data shows that wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 bitcoins have recently exhibited significant accumulation behavior.

4. The impact of the Silk Road Bitcoin sale may be limited. The approval process may take months, and large transactions are often conducted over the counter, making the market impact relatively controllable.

Overall, although short-term volatility has increased, the possibility of a significant decline in the crypto market is low due to continued institutional buying support. Bitcoin may fluctuate and build a base in the range of $90,000 to $95,000, with a small probability of dropping significantly to $70,000 to $80,000.

The market focus will shift to the U.S. December non-farm payroll report to be released this Friday. It is expected that 153,000 new jobs will be added, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. This data will serve as an important reference for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.