Bitcoin hits a new high, and the future rise is promising.

The price of Bitcoin has once again set a historical record, breaking the previous high before May 22 on the evening before the US stock market closed on July 9, reaching a new high of nearly $112,000 per coin, with a daily rise of nearly 3%. This breakthrough occurred at a time when the financial markets are generally focused on the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

The minutes from the Federal Reserve's meeting in June, released that day, brought complex yet suggestive information to the market. The minutes indicate that there are clear divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the outlook for monetary policy, which can be broadly categorized into three camps:

1. Mainstream factions believe that it may be appropriate to lower interest rates this year, but exclude the possibility of a rate cut in July.
2. The hawkish camp argues that interest rates should not be lowered this year.
3. The dovish camp is willing to consider interest rate cuts at the next meeting.

Despite internal differences, most participants believe that this year's potential interest rate cuts undoubtedly enhance the market's expectations for future liquidity easing, which is a positive macro catalyst for risk assets such as Bitcoin.

On-chain data shows that there is a strong "ballast" power in the Bitcoin market – Long-Term Holders (LTHs). The latest report indicates that the total amount of Bitcoin held by long-term holders has reached 74% of the total supply, setting a new high in the past 15 years. This suggests that experienced investors have strong confidence and bullish expectations for the market, providing strong support.

Data also shows that since July 2024, the balance of Bitcoin on exchanges has been steadily declining. This indicates that investors are withdrawing Bitcoin from trading platforms to private wallets for long-term holding, reducing market selling pressure. If history repeats itself, there is further room for the Bitcoin bull market to run.

From a technical perspective, multiple analysts are optimistic about Bitcoin's upward potential. Some analysis points out that Bitcoin has converted the previous "bull flag" top into a support level, which is a "strong bullish signal." There are predictions that the breakout from this "bull flag" technically points to a target price that could reach $168,500.

There is also an analysis suggesting that if Bitcoin can follow its fractal pattern with the money supply, then once the current consolidation period ends, the price of Bitcoin will enter a parabolic rise. A comparison of historical cycle data reveals that the current cycle shares similarities with the bull markets of 2017 and 2021, indicating that Bitcoin still has significant room for growth.

Bitcoin has reached a new historical high, the result of the resonance of multiple factors such as macroeconomic benefits, institutional adoption, and increased holdings by listed companies. The Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts have injected ample liquidity into the market, and the strong positions of long-term holders have built a solid price floor. From the current market momentum, its upward trend is far from over, and a more robust acceleration may be welcomed in the second half of the year.