Crypto Market Observation: ETH Breaks $3600, Regulation and Capital Flow Become the Focus

In the current macroeconomic context, the market is closely watching the potential challenges to the independence of U.S. monetary policy. The core focus is on the possibility that Trump may exert influence over the Federal Reserve Chairman or seek to replace him, which is viewed as a potential threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve. Analysts are concerned that if the independence of the Federal Reserve is compromised, it may prioritize debt costs over inflation targets, leading to the risk of long-term inflation expectations spiraling out of control. Although potential successors emphasize the importance of maintaining independence, the market believes that once the chairman can be easily replaced, the credibility of the successor will be significantly undermined.

Wall Street reacted quickly, implementing the "Powell hedge" strategy. Some strategists suggest buying short-term government bonds and selling long-term government bonds as part of a steepening yield curve trade to hedge against interest rate cut expectations and inflation risks. Additionally, analysts warn that market breadth has deteriorated to historical extremes, believing that the real trigger point may be a breakout of the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield above 5%. At the same time, regulatory changes are also bringing uncertainty to the market, as a large bank plans to charge fintech companies for accessing its customer data, which could impact startups in areas like encryption.

In this market atmosphere, Ethereum has shown strong performance, with prices breaking through $3600. The driving forces behind this include: positive signals from the U.S. Congress regarding cryptocurrency legislation; accelerated inflow of institutional funds through channels such as ETFs; a decline in Bitcoin's market dominance, suggesting that Ethereum may lead in the upcoming "altcoin season." Analysts believe that Ethereum's robust DeFi and smart contract ecosystem provides long-term value support, and investors are advised to pay attention to regulatory dynamics, ETF fund flows, and on-chain indicators.

After reaching a new high last week, Bitcoin closed with a bearish candlestick, fluctuating between $115,000 and $123,000. There are a large number of buy orders in the $114,000-$116,000 range, and if this level is broken, it may trigger stop-loss liquidation and dip to $112,000. Sell orders are accumulating at $119,500 and above $120,000, but if it stabilizes above $119,500, it is expected to challenge new highs. Some analysts predict that the cycle peak may appear in October in the range of $133,665-$151,539. Quantitative models show that for every additional 10,000 BTC held in ETFs, the price could increase by 1.8%, and it is expected to reach $140,000 in September. The options market shows significant divergence, with bearish traders laying out put options in the $100,000-$110,000 range, while bullish traders are constructing a ladder structure with strike prices as high as $190,000.

In terms of ETH, after breaking through the resistance zone of $3,250-$3,500, the short-term target points to $4,000, at which point $331 million in short positions may be liquidated. The current RSI of 84.38 indicates an overbought condition, warning of a potential pullback. If the current support level is maintained, prices are expected to rise further; if it fails, there could be a retracement to the $2,950--$3,250 range to reaccumulate buying momentum. ETH is testing the upper track of the $3,700-$3,800 channel, and breaking through $4,100 will confirm an acceleration of the bull market, with institutional funds continuously flowing in through ETFs providing fundamental support for this.

Over the weekend, a domestic public chain announced the launch of version 3.0 in August and jointly developed a blockchain SIM card, driving its native token to surge by 150% in a single day to $0.25. Its participation in the "Belt and Road" offshore RMB stablecoin pilot may reshape the cross-border payment landscape. In addition, a well-known exchange wallet, after rebranding, integrated a new protocol to realize content assetization minting functions, stimulating related tokens to rise by 77.7%. An on-chain 24-hour fast pass appeared, with a certain token's market cap peaking at $27 million, currently at $19 million.

Key Data (as of July 21, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $118,604 (Year-to-date +26.73%), daily spot trading volume $41.418 billion
• Ethereum: $3,773.44 (Year-to-date +13.13%), daily spot trading volume is $54.025 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 72 (Greed)
• Average GAS: BTC: 0.44 sat/vB, ETH: 0.59 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 60.1%, ETH 11.6%
• 24-hour BTC Long-Short Ratio: 49.25%/50.75%
• Sector fluctuations: The NFT sector rose by 6.73%; the Meme sector rose by 5.32%.
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 121,658 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $356 million, including $36.96 million in BTC, $126 million in ETH, and $19.81 million in DOGE.
• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper line (117329.45 USD), lower line (115006.10 USD)
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper line (3309.45 USD), lower line (3243.92 USD)

Note: When the price is above the upper and lower bounds, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passing through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

ETF Flows (as of July 18)

• Bitcoin ETF: +363 million USD
• Ethereum ETF: +$403 million

Today's Outlook

• A trading platform will remove the seed labels of multiple tokens on July 21.
• Trusta.AI (TA) will be launched on a certain trading platform on July 21.
• A trading platform will list Yala (YALA) on July 22.
• A certain wallet's exclusive TGE Phase 31 will be launched on July 22 at Delphinus Lab (ZKWASM)
• Bittensor (TAO) will unlock approximately 210,000 tokens on July 21, worth about 73 million dollars.

Top 100 Market Cap Gainers Today: Conflux (CFX) up 93.3%, dogwifhat (WIF) up 15.3%, JasmyCoin (JASMY) up 14.9%, Pyth Network (PYTH) up 10.4%, SPX6900 (SPX) up 9.7%.

Hot News

• Data: Tokens such as AVAIL, VENOM, ALT will experience a large unlock, with AVAIL unlocking a value of approximately 18.9 million dollars.
• This week's forecast: The White House Digital Asset Market Working Group is expected to release its first encryption policy report on July 22; the Federal Reserve is holding a meeting on bank capital.
• This week's macro outlook: "Crypto Week" has concluded perfectly, and Powell will make an appearance under pressure.
• Sources: Pump.fun will distribute PUMP airdrop on July 24.
• The giant whale "The White Whale" made nearly 30 million dollars in profit by going long on ETH and SOL in the past week.
• Ethereum rose to last December's high, with over 75,000 people liquidated in the crypto market in the past 24 hours.
• The Ohio Public Employees Retirement System increased its holdings by 21,499 shares of Strategy stock in the second quarter of this year.
• Analysis: Last week, some on-chain addresses accumulated 391,000 ETH, worth approximately 1.4 billion USD.
• In the past 7 days, NFT trading volume increased by 29% to $159.6 million, with Pudgy Penguins trading volume rising by 247.32%.
• Financial instrument platform Aether Holdings plans to raise $40 million, with most of the funds intended for the purchase of Bitcoin.