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Post original content on Gate Square related to WXTM or its
The ETH ecosystem rises while BTC faces downward pressure; the adjustment in the crypto market may be prolonged.
Crypto Market Weekly Review: Rise of ETH, BTC Under Pressure Downwards
Macroeconomic Environment and Market Overview
Recently, global financial market liquidity has tightened, with the US dollar index nearing its yearly high, putting pressure on risk assets. The strength of the US dollar is not only due to the stickiness of inflation in the US and the possible postponement of interest rate cuts, but also reflects the market's reassessment of geopolitical risks. It's worth noting that against the backdrop of this election year, the US stock market has performed well, while the crypto market appears relatively weak.
This week, Bitcoin broke through an important technical support level, and several major trading platforms experienced significant selling pressure. Meanwhile, the ETH/BTC exchange rate strengthened, altcoins rebounded first, and the market's main focus shifted towards the Ethereum ecosystem.
Hot Project Analysis
BLAST: As an Ethereum ecosystem layer2 project developed by the NFT platform BLUR team, it recently completed a points airdrop. As a pioneer in this round of points airdrop model, it is supported by the Paradigm fund. However, the layer2 narrative is gradually losing market attention.
KAS: A PoW public chain project that plans to launch its first KRC-20 meme token by the end of June. Recently, large American miners have started participating in KAS mining.
LISTA: A decentralized algorithmic stablecoin project on the BSC chain, essentially a risk-free investment background. Recently launched new mining activities.
Bitcoin Market Analysis
On-chain data shows that the market has entered a recession phase. Since June, the BTC price has fallen below the 3-month average holding cost. If this trapped structure continues, it may lead to a deterioration of investor confidence and prolong the market adjustment period. Historically, similar major adjustments during a bull market have occurred an average of 5 times.
The market capitalization supply growth of stablecoins has slowed down, reflecting a lack of new funds in the market. Institutional funds have seen a net outflow for two consecutive weeks, but there has been an increase in inflows to altcoins. The MVRV-Z Score indicator has dropped to 1.8, entering the middle range, indicating that holders are generally in a state of loss.
In the futures market, the funding rate has slightly decreased, and BTC positions continue to decrease. The long-short ratio in futures is 2.4, indicating that retail investors have a high sentiment for bottom fishing, and the market may not have reached its low yet.
In the spot market, BTC has been consolidating since reaching a high of $73,000 in March. The trading volume on centralized exchanges has dropped to levels seen at the end of last year, while the trading volume on decentralized exchanges remains stable. The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to strengthen, and future market opportunities may be focused on the Ethereum ecosystem.
Public Chain Lockup Volume Analysis
The total locked value (TVL) this week is $95.3 billion, down $5.6 billion from last week, a decrease of 5.6%. The TVL of mainstream public chains has generally declined, with ETH chain down 8%, TRON chain down 6%, BSC chain down 5%, Arbitrum chain down 9%, Base chain down 4%, BLAST chain significantly down 27%, Polygon chain down 5%, and Optimism chain down 8%. It is worth noting that the TON chain has risen against the trend by 107% this month.
NFT Market Overview
The NFT market continues to be sluggish, with the floor prices of blue-chip projects generally experiencing significant declines. CryptoPunks fell by 13%, BAYC fell by 17%, Pudgy Penguins fell by 28%, Space Doodles fell by 35%, Azuki fell by 23%, The Captainz fell by 16%, MAYC fell by 22%, and LilPudgys fell by 29%. Only the Milady project rose against the trend by 4%.
The overall trading volume has slightly declined, with blue-chip project trading volumes generally falling by about 20%. The number of first-time and repeat buyers is also gradually decreasing, reflecting an extremely harsh overall environment in the NFT market.