BTC is oscillating at a high level, with Spot ETF capital inflow assisting in the breakthrough.

Crypto Market Weekly Review: BTC Volatility at High Levels, Awaiting Breakthrough

The crypto market performed steadily over the past week, with Bitcoin prices oscillating at high levels. At the beginning of this week, Bitcoin opened at $108,386.44 and closed at $109,217.98, with a weekly increase of 0.77%. The weekly high reached $110,590 and the low dipped to $105,119.70, with an amplitude of 5.05%. Notably, trading volume continues to shrink.

Crypto market weekly observation (06.30~07.06): Tariff conflict approaches the end, BTC fluctuates at a high level waiting for a breakthrough

The market has been relatively calm this week, with macro factors still being the dominant force behind BTC price movements. There have been no unexpected changes in employment data, important legislation, or tariff policies.

It is worth noting that an account holding over 80,000 BTC, which has been dormant for 14 years, began to transfer assets this week, creating some psychological pressure on the market. As the price of BTC approaches historical highs again, the trend of long-term holders reducing their holdings may become evident once more.

At the same time, some positive signals are also emerging. After more than a month of silence, the activity level of funds in the market has begun to rise. This activity may resonate with off-market funds, driving BTC to initiate the fourth wave of the current bull market.

Macroeconomics and Policy

This week, three important macro events have impacted the crypto market:

First, U.S. employment data exceeded expectations. Data released on July 3 showed that the U.S. unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%. A deeper analysis revealed that, although private employment positions decreased, there was a significant increase in state government positions. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the week ending June 28 was 233,000, also lower than the expected 240,000. These data alleviate market concerns about a U.S. economic recession on one hand, and on the other hand, reduce the likelihood of a rate cut in July to 4.7%. Overall, the employment data has a relatively neutral impact on the market.

Secondly, the U.S. President officially signed an important bill on July 4th, which is the largest political achievement of his current term so far. This bill includes massive tax cuts, a significant increase in government budget, and spending reductions. In the long run, this may further lower the credit of the dollar, increase debt, and reduce government revenue, but in the short to medium term, it will undoubtedly have a significant stimulating effect on the economy. Despite considerable public controversy, the financial market overall has a positive attitude towards this, directly pushing the S&P 500 index to a new historical high this week.

Third, the tariff policy has entered a new phase. On July 5, the U.S. President announced that he has signed a "tariff letter" targeting 12 countries, which sets a "one-price" national tax rate, with the final tax rate range raised to 10%-70%. The letter will be sent out on July 7. This policy is likely to be officially implemented on August 1, bringing new uncertainties to global trade, inflation, and market sentiment. As the highest tax rate exceeds the previously expected 50%, the market reacted negatively, but due to relatively sufficient pricing, the degree of reaction was limited.

At present, the US economy shows signs of a soft landing or no landing, with interest rate cuts expected to start in September. The new legislation will have a positive impact on the US stock market in the short term, and the tariff conflict is about to come to a close. Under the influence of these factors, the US stock market has set a new historical high. In the medium to short term, supported by the expectations of interest rate cuts, the US stock market may continue to maintain its upward momentum. However, it is important to note that the current valuation of the US stock market is not low, so close attention should be paid to changes in corporate profitability and the impact of tariff policies on economic and employment data.

Crypto Market Analysis

Compared to the previous weeks, the BTC market is relatively calm this week, but new variables are brewing internally.

On July 2nd, Bitcoin once again validated the "first bullish uptrend line", but spent most of the week hovering around the $108,000 line, launching its third assault on the historical high of $110,000 in eight months.

The Bitcoin retail market shows significant differentiation, with a decrease in trading enthusiasm among on-site funds, and the on-chain activity and the number of new addresses performing modestly. However, the Bitcoin spot ETF market is active in trading and continues to record inflows of funds.

As it stands, the price and trend of Bitcoin are completely under the control of the funds from the spot ETF channel, and the correlation between Bitcoin's trend and the Nasdaq index has increased to 0.94.

Some potential changes are occurring. The on-chain lending rates have begun to rebound after falling to a low point, and the 30-day average premium rate in the contract market has also started to rise after hitting bottom. Of course, the changes in these two indicators need further observation for their sustainability. According to the judgment of the June monthly report, the market may step up again in the third quarter. If the funds from the spot ETF channel continue to flow in and on-chain funds start to resonate with long positions, then the fourth wave of increase may arrive soon.

Fund flow analysis

After a significant rebound in April and May, the inflow of funds has shown a divergent trend. The funding from stablecoin channels has started to weaken, while the funding from Bitcoin spot ETF channels remains relatively strong and stable.

This week, the inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETF channels was $790 million, which has weakened compared to last week but remains at a high level. The inflow of stablecoin channels was $1.574 billion, which is basically flat compared to last week.

Crypto market weekly observation (06.30~07.06): Tariff conflict approaching an end, BTC fluctuates at a high level waiting for a breakthrough

selling pressure and selling situation

As the price approaches 110,000 USD again, long-term holders seem to be initiating a sell-off once more.

From the perspective of the scale of inflows into the exchange, the total selling scale of both short-term and long-term holders this week is still shrinking, which provides strong support for the upward price of BTC.

However, this week an ancient wallet holding over 80,000 BTC showed signs of movement. This wallet, which had been silent for 14 years, made a significant asset transfer, leading to a substantial increase in on-chain value.

According to the current trend, once Bitcoin breaks through $110,000 and starts the fourth wave of increase, the selling by long-term holders and large coin holders may be triggered again. These sell-offs will jointly determine the new price level of Bitcoin and its height of increase along with the buying pressure.

cycle indicator

According to the data provided by eMerge Engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.625, in an upward phase.

Crypto Market Weekly Review (06.30~07.06): Tariff Conflict Approaches Conclusion, BTC Fluctuates at High Levels Awaiting Breakthrough

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BlockchainFriesvip
· 19h ago
The bull run has arrived, why still have fluctuations?
View OriginalReply0
HodlOrRegretvip
· 19h ago
Run or not when the bear comes?
View OriginalReply0
ProposalManiacvip
· 20h ago
The sharks are dancing, observing is the best.
View OriginalReply0
DaoDevelopervip
· 20h ago
examining these price patterns... classic consolidation before next leg up tbh
Reply0
WenAirdropvip
· 20h ago
Over 100,000, no feeling, enter a position at 150,000.
View OriginalReply0
DaoGovernanceOfficervip
· 20h ago
*sigh* empirically speaking, this volume decline suggests classic pre-breakout accumulation. have we learned nothing from satoshi's early papers?
Reply0
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