Web3 Industry Trends and Hotspot Analysis

1. Market Highlights

1. Macroeconomic Environment

Goldman Sachs adjusts Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations

Goldman Sachs' latest report indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to lower the interest rate cut from 100 basis points to 75 basis points this year. Data shows that core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation continues to decline, with an annualized increase of 2.5% from September to November last year, down from a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. The revised data from the Dallas Fed further shows that the inflation rate dropped to 1.8% in November.

At the same time, the labor market is gradually tightening, and the wage growth rate has slowed to 3.9%. If productivity growth remains between 1.5% and 2% in the coming years, it will align with the 2% inflation target. These indicators all suggest that inflationary pressures are gradually easing.

2. Web3 Field

The United States delays the implementation of new cryptocurrency tax regulations.

The IRS has announced that it will postpone the implementation of cryptocurrency tax reporting rules until the end of 2025, giving brokers more time to address legal and regulatory challenges. The new regulations require the use of the first-in, first-out (FIFO) accounting method for crypto assets starting January 2025, unless an alternative method such as highest-in, first-out (HIFO) or specific identification (Spec ID) is chosen.

This decision is expected to benefit cryptocurrency holders on centralized finance (CeFi) trading platforms in 2025, providing industry participants with more ample preparation time.

2. Hot Events

1. Syria considers a Bitcoin-based banking system

The Syrian Center for Economic Research (SCER) proposed to the new government the establishment of a banking system based on the Bitcoin network, aimed at accelerating national reconstruction and protecting the public from the effects of inflation. The proposal is called the "Syrian Bitcoin Policy," which suggests that the government establish a comprehensive regulatory framework to legalize the trading and mining of Bitcoin and other digital assets.

In addition, the proposal also suggests digitizing the Syrian pound and considering supporting it with assets including the US dollar and Bitcoin. This move reflects the efforts of post-war countries to seek innovative financial solutions.

2. Ethereum News Weekly Shutdown

The founder of the Ethereum News Weekly (WiE) announced that the media outlet will cease operations on January 1, 2025. This decision stems from communications with the leadership of the Ethereum Foundation (EF), which showed a significant decrease in support for WiE. The founder stated that despite the opportunity to continue operations through fundraising, he chose to focus on other projects.

This event highlights the sustainability challenges faced by Web3 media, while also reflecting issues within the Ethereum ecosystem regarding resource allocation and recognition of non-technical contributions.

3. The Elon Musk name change incident has caused market fluctuations.

Recently, Elon Musk temporarily renamed his social media account to "Kekius Maximus" and used a PEPE frog avatar, causing fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market. Although Musk has restored the original name and avatar, this move had a significant impact on the market, especially as the price of the similarly named KEKIUS token experienced wild fluctuations.

This event once again demonstrates the influence of social media on the cryptocurrency market, while also reflecting the market's sensitivity to the words and actions of prominent figures.

3. Hot Projects

T3AI - DeFi network protocol combining AI

T3AI is an emerging DeFi project aimed at solving the low asset utilization problem caused by over-collateralization in the traditional DeFi ecosystem. The project introduces AI agents as trusted intermediaries to enhance capital efficiency through dynamic risk management algorithms.

The project token distribution is 90.5% for free circulation and 9.5% for development rewards and community activities. 80% of the loan income will be used for buybacks, with 10% paid in T3AI tokens and 90% paid in SOL or USDC.

However, the project experienced severe price fluctuations in the short term, and the development team conducted partial token sales for infrastructure development. This reflects the opportunities and challenges faced by emerging DeFi projects.

4. Sector Rotation Analysis

Current market hotspots are mainly concentrated in AI-related fields, indicating the market's continued attention to AI technology in Web3 applications. At the same time, DeFi and infrastructure projects also maintain a high level of interest, reflecting the industry's focus on underlying technologies and financial innovation.

The performance within each sector varies, reflecting the market's differentiated assessment of different projects. Investors need to closely monitor the development trends of each sector and the fundamentals of specific projects to make more informed investment decisions.