The market greed index has soared to 74, with multiple indicators showing a rebound in investor confidence.

Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior Analysis

The current market sentiment is showing a state of greed, with the fear and greed index reaching 74, reflecting a surge in investor sentiment. This index experienced a significant decline in June, dropping to its lowest point of the year in early July, followed by a noticeable rebound.

The Bitcoin contract positions on a certain trading platform began to grow steadily at the beginning of July, until a reduction in positions occurred on July 23. However, after Trump made comments related to Bitcoin, the positions increased again. This indicates that investors' views on the market outlook have changed, from initially bullish to cautious as they approached resistance levels, and then to a positive reaction to Trump's remarks.

The short positions of leveraged funds increased last week, which usually indicates that arbitrage capital is also increasing its spot positions. When this indicator reaches a turning point and starts to decline, it often signals a possible upward trend after short covering.

The Bitcoin margin long positions on a certain trading platform began to accumulate after hitting bottom in mid-March and are currently still at a high level, but the growth momentum has slowed down.

The Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator (SSRO) hit a low on July 9, below the levels of August-September last year, indicating a sharp decline in market participation. However, this could also become a turning point, providing favorable rebound conditions for altcoins.

The behavior patterns of long-term Bitcoin holders show that during the major price increase from December 2023 to April 2024, they continued to sell Bitcoin. However, starting in April, as Bitcoin entered a wide fluctuation range, long-term holders ceased their selling activities and tended to continue holding.

The unrealized net gains and losses of long-term Bitcoin holders have not yet reached the high levels seen during historical bull market cycles, which may indicate that there is still room for growth in the current market.

The unrealized net profit and loss of short-term holders fell below 0 in early July but quickly recovered thereafter. Referring to similar trends from last year, this may indicate an impending major upward trend.

Overall, multiple indicators show that market sentiment is improving, and investor behavior is becoming more positive, but potential risk factors still need to be monitored.