Analysis of Trends and Hotspots in the Web3 Field

Macroeconomic Environment

Goldman's latest report adjusted its forecast for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, lowering the expected cut this year from 100 basis points to 75 basis points. The report pointed out that core personal consumption expenditures ( PCE ) inflation showed a continued decline in the fourth quarter of last year. Data showed that the annualized PCE inflation rate from September to November last year was 2.5%, slightly higher than the 2.3% of the previous three months, but still below the year-on-year increase of 2.8%.

The tightening labor market has led to a slowdown in wage growth, with the annual growth rate falling to 3.9%. If productivity growth remains in the range of 1.5%-2% over the next few years, it will align with the 2% inflation target. These indicators suggest that, despite ongoing inflationary pressures, the overall trend is positive.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Dynamics

The IRS announced that the implementation of cryptocurrency tax reporting rules has been postponed until the end of 2025. This move aims to give brokers more time to adapt to the new regulations and address related legal and regulatory challenges. The new rule requires the use of the First In First Out ( FIFO ) accounting method for crypto assets starting January 1, 2025, unless another method such as Highest In First Out ( HIFO ) or Specific Identification ( Spec ID ) is chosen.

This postponement measure is expected to benefit cryptocurrency holders on centralized finance (CeFi) trading platforms in 2025, providing market participants with more sufficient preparation time.

International Economic Reconstruction and Cryptocurrency

A Syrian non-governmental organization has proposed an innovative initiative, suggesting that the new government consider establishing a banking system based on the Bitcoin network and related technologies. The proposal aims to accelerate the national reconstruction process and protect the public from the effects of inflation and currency devaluation.

The proposal known as "Syrian Bitcoin Policy" offers a new solution for countries facing economic difficulties. The proposal suggests that the government establish a comprehensive regulatory framework to legalize the trading and mining activities of Bitcoin and other digital assets to promote economic recovery. At the same time, it also proposes to digitize the Syrian pound and consider supporting it with assets including the US dollar and Bitcoin.

Changes in the Ethereum Ecosystem

Ethereum News Weekly ( WiE ) founder announced that the media will cease operations on January 1, 2025. This decision stems from communication with the leadership of the Ethereum Foundation ( EF ), reflecting a change in EF's perception of WiE's value. The founder stated that although there was an opportunity to continue operations through fundraising, he chose to focus on other projects.

The closure of WiE highlights the sustainability challenges faced by cryptocurrency media, as well as issues within the Ethereum ecosystem, namely an excessive focus on technological development at the expense of other important contributions. This event has sparked reflections on the media ecology and survival models within the cryptocurrency industry.

Market Volatility and Celebrity Effect

Elon Musk's recent name change on social media has triggered drastic fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market. He temporarily renamed his account to "Kekius Maximus" and used a PEPE frog avatar, before reverting to the original. This move caused the price of the similarly named token KEKIUS to fluctuate significantly in a short period, first soaring and then sharply dropping.

This event once again proves the significant influence that public figures have on the cryptocurrency market through social media, while also reflecting the market's high sensitivity to such information. Investors should approach these short-term fluctuations with caution and focus on the long-term value of the projects themselves.

Emerging Project Analysis

A new project called T3AI has attracted market attention. This project is a DeFi network protocol that combines AI, aimed at addressing the low asset utilization problem caused by over-collateralization in the DeFi ecosystem. T3AI introduces a dedicated AI agent as a trusted intermediary, ensuring loan repayability through dynamic risk management algorithms.

The project token allocation plan is 90.5% for free circulation and 9.5% for development rewards and community activities. It is worth noting that the project experienced a price surge in a short period, followed by the development team selling part of their holdings for infrastructure development.

This case reflects the efforts of emerging DeFi projects to seek a balance between innovation and risk management, while also reminding investors to closely monitor the behavior of the project team and the distribution of tokens.