Analysis of Market Trends and Hot Projects in the Web3 Field

1. Market Highlights

1. Market Trends

Macroeconomic Environment

A well-known financial institution's latest report has adjusted its expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, lowering this year's forecast from 100 basis points to 75 basis points. The report indicates that claims about a rebound in core inflation have been exaggerated. Data shows that the annualized increase in core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation for September to November last year was 2.5%, slightly higher than the 2.3% in the previous three months, but still below the year-on-year increase of 2.8%, reflecting a continued trend of declining inflation.

Another revised average PCE inflation report indicates that the annualized PCE inflation from September to November last year was 2.4%, with the inflation rate for November dropping to 1.8%. Meanwhile, the labor market is gradually tightening, and the annual wage growth rate has slowed to 3.9%. Analysts believe that if productivity growth in the coming years is between 1.5% and 2%, it will align with the 2% inflation target.

Web3 Field

The IRS announced that the implementation of cryptocurrency tax reporting rules will be postponed until December 31, 2025. This decision aims to provide brokers with more time to address legal and regulatory challenges. At the same time, the IRS issued a temporary relief measure expected to benefit cryptocurrency holders on centralized finance (CeFi) trading platforms in 2025. The new rules will require the use of the first-in, first-out (FIFO) accounting method for digital assets starting January 1, 2025, unless the highest-in, first-out (HIFO) or specific identification (Spec ID) methods are chosen.

2. Hot Events

Macroeconomic Environment

A Syrian non-governmental organization has proposed that the new government consider establishing a banking system based on the Bitcoin network and related technologies. The organization pointed out in its policy proposal that such a system is crucial for accelerating national reconstruction and protecting the public from the impacts of inflation and currency devaluation. This proposal, referred to as the "Syrian Bitcoin Policy," aims to provide new solutions for the country facing economic difficulties.

The proposal emphasizes that the government should establish a comprehensive regulatory framework to legalize the trading and mining of Bitcoin and other digital assets, thereby promoting the recovery of the Syrian economy. Additionally, it suggests digitizing the Syrian pound and considering support with assets including the US dollar and Bitcoin. The newly elected president has been striving for international recognition to secure reconstruction funds since taking office in December 2024.

Web3 field

The founder of a certain Ethereum news platform announced that the platform will officially cease operations on January 1, 2025. He stated that this decision stemmed from a conversation with the leadership of the Ethereum Foundation (EF), during which it became clear that the EF's perception of the platform's value had evidently diminished, and it had only provided symbolic funding support in 2024. As the EF chose to completely cut off this insignificant support, the platform's operations have also come to an end.

The founder mentioned that, despite the opportunity to continue operations through fundraising, he prefers to focus on other meaningful projects. He also pointed out that the platform has failed to find a sustainable business model, with advertising and sponsorship revenue being difficult to maintain. Additionally, he emphasized the issues present in the Ethereum ecosystem, namely being too focused on code development and research while neglecting other important contributions.

3. Hot Topics Narrative

Recently, well-known entrepreneur Elon Musk changed his social media account name to "Kekius Maximus" and used a PEPE frog as his avatar, sparking widespread attention in online communities. This move surprised many, especially since he chose a name closely related to internet culture, reflecting the exaggerated style often found in meme culture.

Musk's renaming action had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, especially for a token that shares its new name, which saw a surge in price in a short period. Although Musk did not directly refer to his relationship with the token, his social media activities often have a strong influence on the cryptocurrency market. After his renaming, the token's price dropped to a quarter of its peak level from the previous day, indicating that the market is highly sensitive to his dynamics. Notably, Musk has recently restored his account name to its original and changed his profile picture back to a personal photo.

2. Hot Projects

Project Introduction: T3AI

T3AI is a DeFi network protocol that combines AI, aimed at addressing the issues of excessive collateralization required for loans in the DeFi ecosystem, which leads to limited leverage investment and asset utilization. The project introduces dedicated AI agents as trusted intermediaries, ensuring loan repayability through dynamic risk management algorithms, while allowing users to freely invest, trade, or stake on-chain, thus achieving higher capital returns.

The token allocation for T3 is 90.5% for free circulation and 9.5% for development rewards and community activities. Among them, 0.175% has been sold to cover the infrastructure costs as of January 1, 2025. In addition, 0.3% of the loan will be treated as income, 80% of the income will be used for repurchase, 10% of the loan will be paid in T3AI tokens, and the remaining 90% will be paid in SOL or USDC.

It is worth noting that the project experienced a price surge in a short period, and the development team conducted a large-scale sell-off at 4 AM (0.175% of the holdings were used for infrastructure development).

3. Sector Rotation

Due to the inability to directly display images, we can summarize the sector rotation situation:

1. Hot Sectors: According to data from Dune and Dot Labs, there are currently multiple hot sectors in the market, each with different performances and levels of popularity.

2. Within sectors: Projects within different sectors also show varying performances, with some projects potentially standing out while others may remain relatively stable or decline.

The specific data and trends require a more detailed analysis based on the original chart. Investors should consider multiple sources of information when making decisions and closely monitor market dynamics.