Daily News | Panic Eases as Bitcoin (BTC) Surpasses $85,000 Intraday

Daily Summary: Altcoin Season Index Bottoms Out, Bitcoin Potentially Marks Long-term Bottom

According to data from Farside Investors, U.S.-based Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net outflows totaling $1 million last Friday. Among these, Bitwise BITB experienced an outflow of $12.3 million, while ARK’s ARKB saw inflows of $11.3 million. Ethereum-related spot ETFs suffered large outflows yesterday, totaling $29.2 million, primarily driven by Grayscale’s ETHE ($26.1 million) and Bitwise ETHW ($3.1 million).

Viewpoint: Economic Slowdown Could Become a Major Catalyst for Bitcoin and Other Digital Assets

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has issued warnings of a potential U.S. economic recession, suggesting it might already be underway. In an interview with CNBC, Fink pointed to increasing economic strain combined with protectionist trade policies as key factors behind slow economic contraction. Although recession fears usually spook traditional markets, crypto investors might find reasons for optimism. An impending economic slowdown could prompt the Federal Reserve to pivot away from monetary tightening, potentially fueling a new wave of liquidity. Analysts suggest such a scenario may be a significant catalyst for Bitcoin and similar digital assets.

Fink’s comments align with prior forecasts from key Wall Street institutions like JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Goldman Sachs. Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise, added that a weakening U.S. dollar could bolster Bitcoin in the short term and possibly set the stage for Bitcoin’s adoption as an alternative global reserve asset in the long run.

Altcoin Season Index Shows Signs of Bottoming Out

CoinMarketCap data shows a mild recovery in market sentiment as the Altcoin Season Index increased from a recent low of 14 (during Trump tariff-related market anxieties) to 17. The index remains substantially below its March average of 32 points, and the February average of 43 points. Since marking an annual high of 87 on December 4, 2024, the Altcoin Index has steadily declined. Only 15 tokens among the top 100 cryptocurrencies outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days. The strongest performers in this period from the top 100 are AB, XCN, FORM, OM, and IP.

Analysis: Bitcoin Might Have Reinforced a Long-Term Bottom

Analyst James Van Straten recently posted a chart analysis suggesting that the recent sell-off prompted by uncertainties around Trump’s tariff policies, which began on April 3, triggered intense market volatility spreading panic into equity and bond markets. Meanwhile, gold prices pushed toward historic highs, and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell below the 100 mark for the first time since July 2023. The VIX volatility index spiked to its highest levels since August last year. Historically, the Bitcoin-to-VIX ratio hitting its long-term trendline has usually marked Bitcoin’s price bottoms.

According to TradingView data, the Bitcoin/VIX ratio currently stands at 1,903 points, touching its long-term trendline. A similar occurrence happened during the Yen-carry unwind-induced market volatility when Bitcoin bottomed near $49,000. Historically, this is the fourth instance the Bitcoin/VIX ratio approached this key trendline. Previous examples occurred during the COVID-induced market crisis in March 2020, and earlier in August 2015, marking clear bottoms and launching subsequent bullish cycles. If this trendline continues to prove a reliable support indicator, it potentially suggests Bitcoin has once again entered a confirmed long-term bottom.

Market Analysis: BTC Continues Momentum Upwards; OM Experiences Flash Crash

Market Highlights:

RWA (Real-World Asset) protocol MANTRA (OM) experienced a dramatic flash crash, tumbling more than 90% from $6 down to $0.50 in a matter of minutes, erasing over $5.5 billion in market capitalization. The MANTRA team released a statement clarifying that the crash resulted from irrational liquidations unrelated to project fundamentals and had no connection to the team’s actions.

Meme token RFC, closely associated with Elon Musk’s concepts, briefly surpassed a market cap of $100 million. Initially made famous by a satirical commentary on a Tesla Cybertruck graffiti incident (posting a screenshot and responding concisely with “Found one”), RFC leveraged viral humor and minimalistic critique to gain popularity quickly. Nonetheless, investors should recognize its success has been primarily sentiment and concept-driven, lacking substantial real-world utility or value.

Broad Market Performance:

BTC maintained upward momentum on the back of U.S. tariff policy adjustments, briefly breaking above $85,000 and surpassing key resistance levels. Analysts now foresee continued bullish upside.

ETH followed broader market trends, regaining $1,600 intraday. However, ETF-related metrics still suggest relatively weak buying momentum.

Altcoins generally declined, heavily pressured by OM’s flash crash and weakness in the RWA sector, which dropped 44%. PayFi became a contrarian sector gainer, with ECOX, SVL, and CIRUS performing positively.

Macro News: Fear Diminishes as Major U.S. Indices Rally Higher

Last Friday, major U.S. benchmark indices recovered significantly, with Nasdaq surging over 2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 rising more than 1%. Technology giants such as Apple climbed sharply (+4%), and Nvidia rose over 3%.

Analysts attributed the improved market sentiment to key signals from Federal Reserve officials. Boston Fed President Susan Collins mentioned the Fed is “absolutely ready” to utilize policy tools to stabilize financial markets if turmoil emerges.

In addition, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon noted that the Fed would intervene in the event of a “chaotic” scenario in the U.S. treasury market.