📊 This Week’s Focus: CPI Data + ETF Inflows — A Potential Market Turning Point

1️⃣ Macro Backdrop

US CPI drops this week — market expects +2.8% YoY.
→ If CPI comes in lower than expected, odds of a September rate cut could spike (already at 86%), bullish for risk assets.

Trump extended China tariffs by 90 days. BTC spiked to $122K on the news before pulling back — showing short-term sentiment swings on headlines.

Institutional flows remain strong: Spot ETH ETFs saw $1.02B in net inflows in a single day (new record), with cumulative inflows now over $10.8B.

2️⃣ Technical & Structure Watch

$BTC : Key support at $118.5K–$119K (CME gap zone). Resistance at $122K–$123K (prior high).

$ETH : Broke the crucial $4,200–$4,300 zone; hold above = target $4,500.

$SOL : Back above $200 with rising volume — clear signs of capital rotation back into Layer1 plays.

$DOGE : Bounced off long-term uptrend line; similar to 2024 setup, still has ~60% upside potential.

3️⃣ Weekly Playbook (Spot Swing)

Conservative Approach:

Trim 20–30% exposure before CPI to avoid whipsaw on release.

Hold BTC above $118.5K, ETH above $4,200.

Keep only core positions in alts (SOL/DOGE), add only after post-CPI confirmation.

Aggressive Approach:

Accumulate BTC in $118.5K–$119K zone; if CPI < expected, add on breakout.

Buy ETH dips into $4,250–$4,300, target $4,500.

Chase SOL above $210 with volume; watch DOGE for ETF-related catalysts.

🎯 Key Take:
ETH is the main driver of this leg. Alt season depends on whether BTC.D breaks below 60%. CPI is the trigger this week —

Below expectations → full risk-on mode.
Above expectations → short-term risk-off.
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📊 本周关注：CPI数据 + ETF资金潮，市场或迎新一波转折

1️⃣ 宏观背景

美国CPI将于本周公布，市场预期年增率 2.8%。低于预期=9月降息机率飙高（已达 86% 预测），利好风险资产。

特朗普延长对中关税90天，BTC 当日冲破 122,000 美元后回调，显示消息面影响短线情绪。

机构资金持续涌入：现货 ETH ETF 单日首次突破 10.2亿美元 净流入，累计流入破 108亿美元。

2️⃣ 技术与结构观察

$BTC ：关键支撑 118,500–119,000（CME缺口区），压力位 122,000–123,000（前高）。

$ETH ：突破 4,200–4,300 关键区，若稳定站上，4,500 是第一目标。

$SOL ：重回 200 美元后成交量放大，资金明显回流 Layer1 热点。

$DOGE ：沿长期上升趋势线反弹，参考 2024 年类似走势，仍有潜在 60% 上行空间。

3️⃣ 本周操作策略（现货波段）

保守派：

CPI 公布前减仓 20–30%，避开数据公布瞬间波动

BTC 守 118,500 继续持有，ETH 守 4,200 继续拿

SOL、DOGE 等山寨只留核心仓位，等待数据后加仓信号

积极派：

BTC 118,500–119,000 分批埋伏，CPI低于预期则加码追击

ETH 4,250–4,300 回踩即上车，目标看 4,500

SOL 突破 210 放量可追，DOGE 留意 ETF 相关催化加速行情

🎯 观点：
ETH 已成本轮行情核心推手，山寨季取决于 BTC.D 能否跌破 60%。CPI 是本周的引爆器——低于预期=全面冒险，高于预期=短线退避。