📊 This Week’s Focus: CPI Data + ETF Inflows — A Potential Market Turning Point

1️⃣ Macro Backdrop

US CPI drops this week — market expects +2.8% YoY.
→ If CPI comes in lower than expected, odds of a September rate cut could spike (already at 86%), bullish for risk assets.

Trump extended China tariffs by 90 days. BTC spiked to $122K on the news before pulling back — showing short-term sentiment swings on headlines.

Institutional flows remain strong: Spot ETH ETFs saw $1.02B in net inflows in a single day (new record), with cumulative inflows now over $10.8B.

2️⃣ Technical & Structure Watch

$BTC : Key support at $118.5K–$119K (CME gap zone). Resistance at $122K–$123K (prior high).

$ETH : Broke the crucial $4,200–$4,300 zone; hold above = target $4,500.

$SOL : Back above $200 with rising volume — clear signs of capital rotation back into Layer1 plays.

$DOGE : Bounced off long-term uptrend line; similar to 2024 setup, still has ~60% upside potential.

3️⃣ Weekly Playbook (Spot Swing)

Conservative Approach:

Trim 20–30% exposure before CPI to avoid whipsaw on release.

Hold BTC above $118.5K, ETH above $4,200.

Keep only core positions in alts (SOL/DOGE), add only after post-CPI confirmation.

Aggressive Approach:

Accumulate BTC in $118.5K–$119K zone; if CPI < expected, add on breakout.

Buy ETH dips into $4,250–$4,300, target $4,500.

Chase SOL above $210 with volume; watch DOGE for ETF-related catalysts.

🎯 Key Take:
ETH is the main driver of this leg. Alt season depends on whether BTC.D breaks below 60%. CPI is the trigger this week —

Below expectations → full risk-on mode.
Above expectations → short-term risk-off.
-----------------------
📊 本週關注：CPI數據 + ETF資金潮，市場或迎新一波轉折

1️⃣ 宏觀背景

美國CPI將於本週公布，市場預期年增率 2.8%。低於預期=9月降息機率飆高（已達 86% 預測），利好風險資產。

特朗普延長對中關稅90天，BTC 當日衝破 122,000 美元後回調，顯示消息面影響短線情緒。

機構資金持續湧入：現貨 ETH ETF 單日首次突破 10.2億美元 淨流入，累計流入破 108億美元。

2️⃣ 技術與結構觀察

$BTC ：關鍵支撐 118,500–119,000（CME缺口區），壓力位 122,000–123,000（前高）。

$ETH ：突破 4,200–4,300 關鍵區，若穩定站上，4,500 是第一目標。

$SOL ：重回 200 美元後成交量放大，資金明顯回流 Layer1 熱點。

$DOGE ：沿長期上升趨勢線反彈，參考 2024 年類似走勢，仍有潛在 60% 上行空間。

3️⃣ 本週操作策略（現貨波段）

保守派：

CPI 公布前減倉 20–30%，避開數據公布瞬間波動

BTC 守 118,500 繼續持有，ETH 守 4,200 繼續拿

SOL、DOGE 等山寨只留核心倉位，等待數據後加倉信號

積極派：

BTC 118,500–119,000 分批埋伏，CPI低於預期則加碼追擊

ETH 4,250–4,300 回踩即上車，目標看 4,500

SOL 突破 210 放量可追，DOGE 留意 ETF 相關催化加速行情

🎯 觀點：
ETH 已成本輪行情核心推手，山寨季取決於 BTC.D 能否跌破 60%。CPI 是本週的引爆器——低於預期=全面冒險，高於預期=短線退避。