If a person cannot distinguish between spring, summer, autumn, and winter, then during the early summer season, seeing dark clouds and rain, it is easy to think that winter has arrived. This is likely a result of the habitual nature of human thinking. The thunderstorms in early summer may still carry a hint of chill, but in reality, this is just a late spring cold snap. After the rain clears, we are about to enter a period of high temperatures lasting several months...
The next 6 to 8 months may be the most difficult yet valuable period of this cycle. You need to eliminate all ineffective socializing, cancel travel and other activity plans, and dedicate most of your time outside of work to the cryptocurrency space, focusing intently on the emergence of several peaks. Based on the information currently available, it is certain that there will be a mainstream altcoin season in this bull-bear cycle; previously it was expressed with a high probability, and now it is stated with certainty.
Time has unknowingly arrived in May, and the various external factors are gradually becoming clearer. Many friends ask if we are still trading in segments now? Will there be a pullback? In fact, you also know that the wild ups and downs are the routine configuration of a final bull market, and it’s all about the thrill. No matter what method you choose to profit in a bull market, the key is still to manage your personal emotions and mindset well. Holding long-term is fine, and quick in-and-out for short-term is also okay; the premise is that you must have self-awareness. The one who knows the situation of your account funds best is you yourself, and it’s also you who ultimately decides how much profit you can reap by the end of 2025. You are your own financial master, so don’t easily hand over this decision-making power to anyone else. As the market slightly improves, all kinds of tricksters will emerge, claiming to make hundreds of thousands every day, and if they can't make money today, they complain about it. Just use your brain to observe and don’t follow blindly.
If you already have low-priced chips in the early stage and are currently in a large position in a state of floating profit, you can wait for two interest rate cuts to see if the market sentiment is suitable for gradually exiting. For holding mainstream altcoins, even if it is currently in a state of loss, as long as there is no floating loss of more than 60%, then the next half a year will have to keep an eye on the market, and the pull up will often appear at a moment you can't imagine, leaving you not much time to think, it is very common for the amplitude to fluctuate more than 100% a day, sell a day earlier or sell a day late, the income will be very different, don't worry about how much money you will lose, as long as there is no big problem with the target you choose, now simulate how to sell in advance, open your imagination, Concentrate on staring at those 25-40 days, you can make a profit is a high probability thing, and it depends on your character and courage to earn more or less.
A friend asked, what should I do if I bought the wrong altcoin in the past year and has lost more than 60% of my position? It can only be said that we have reduced our desires and accepted the reality, perhaps we have missed the best period of liquidation and swapping, and we need more courage to face this outcome and summarize the root cause of our own situation. Don't envy how much others make in this bull market, what you have to think about is whether you have the courage to grasp the market in the last 8 months, get back the principal as much as possible, don't think about high-risk contracts and leverage, honestly choose a mainstream currency to hold, and see if God can give you this opportunity, as long as the principal is there, there will be a lot of money to make in the future. There is no shortage of opportunities in this circle, and what is lacking is people who live a long time.
Let's talk about the current market situation. As mentioned before, it has remained in a high-level consolidation for the past few days, with both upward and downward movements subject to their own interpretations. For small retail investors who only engage in spot trading, this moment is not a great opportunity. It's best to observe more and act less. After going through the past year and a half, most players have been thoroughly schooled by Wall Street's trading techniques. Currently, although the price of BTC has indeed risen, many accounts are still in the red. After all, there are not many people holding BTC; most are stuck in altcoins. Additionally, those who have lost over 80% are likely to be contract traders and swing traders, which are the two highest-risk paths during a bull market.
At this confusing crossroads, after browsing through the dynamics and various community information, this time during the pump, many people have become calmer. The data shows that there hasn't been a large-scale retail FOMO phenomenon; the pump has been driven by large holders and institutions, with not many retail investors following suit. Perhaps it's not that people aren't following, but rather that most small investors really have no money left. Most veteran investors have bet on ETH and layer 2, while many small and new investors have perished in meme coins and contracts. So, assuming you are the trader for a large institution, how would you design the upcoming script?
May has historically been a month of significant volatility in the cryptocurrency space. The haunting memories of the 519 crash and the 511 Luna death spiral are still fresh. There will be a series of data releases ahead, which are key moments that can influence price movements. I advise friends to pay close attention to market sentiment indicators and RSI technical indicators—one reflects the macro market, while the other focuses on individual cryptocurrencies. In the coming six months, the accuracy of these two indicators will be much higher, whether you are looking to play the swings or prepare to exit at the top; these two indicators are definitely worth considering.
Remember clearly that I mentioned last year that during the bull tail attacking phase, we must pay more attention to the daily level K-lines. Mainstream coins have a 20%-30% pullback, while small coins have a 30%-40% pullback. The bull tail will only continue to surge if there is a rapid deep drop. According to past experience, this drop and rise is best completed within 1 to 2 weeks, accompanied by extremely high trading volume. Currently, most coins have already experienced this once, and if it continues to occur more than 3 times, it is very likely that we are reaching the peak.
Don't always think about buying at the lowest and selling at the highest; don't let the noisy voices in the market affect you. Everything has its cause and effect, whether you believe in another bull market or whether you believe in the four-year bull-bear cycle, the market is still the same market, and BTC is still the same BTC.
In the past six months, I traveled around and visited more than ten domestic and international cities to see the world. From my interactions with people and circles, I really can't think of any reason to judge that this cryptocurrency industry has no future. Hong Kong is striving to transform, wealthy individuals in the Middle East are also starting to bet, and 20% of young people globally have entered this cryptocurrency market. This sector will not perform poorly in the next 5 to 10 years.
Stay calm and keep moving forward. Just live well after making a choice. I hope friends who pay attention to this dynamic will respect cause and effect in the coming time, may wealth come from all directions, and may everything go smoothly with the God of Wealth. Remember the words of Mr. Yoshikawa Tomio, you are your own most reliable God of Wealth ☕#CPI数据将公布##ETH近3日大幅上涨#
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