Crypto Market Macro Research: Coin-Stock Strategy Activates Market Enthusiasm, Initiates New Industry Cycle

1. Global Macroeconomic Variables Reshaping Asset Pricing Paths

In the second half of 2025, the global financial market will enter a new era dominated by macro variables. The three major pillars that have supported traditional asset pricing over the past decade are reversing, and the pricing logic of capital markets is being deeply reshaped. As a frontier reflection of global liquidity and risk appetite, the price trends, funding structures, and asset weights of encryption assets are being driven by new variables. The three core variables are:

1. Structural inflation becomes sticky. Core inflation remains high at over 3%, far exceeding the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. Although energy prices have fallen, the surge in capital expenditures brought about by artificial intelligence and automation technology, the rising prices of upstream rare metals during the green energy transition, and the increase in labor costs due to manufacturing returning home all contribute to endogenous inflation sources. The Trump team has confirmed that it will restore high tariffs on certain countries, indicating that geopolitical games will continue, and the government views inflation as an acceptable "strategic cost." This will create a "policy-driven cost inflation" pattern, the persistence and penetration into asset pricing of which will be far stronger than in 2022.

2. The structural weakening of the U.S. dollar credit. The U.S. fiscal deficit continues to expand, with the federal deficit surpassing $2.1 trillion in the second quarter of 2025, setting a historical high for the same period. At the same time, the U.S. global settlement center status faces decentralization challenges, with countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and India promoting large-scale local currency settlement mechanisms. Moody's and Fitch have downgraded the outlook for the U.S. long-term sovereign credit rating to "negative," triggering increased volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, as safe-haven funds begin to seek diversified reserve forms.

3. Institutional differentiation of global capital flow. The tightening regulation within the traditional financial system, valuation bottlenecks, and rising compliance costs restrict the expansion of institutional funds. In contrast, the encryption sector is entering the "legitimacy of compliance systems" stage, influenced by the relaxation of auditing systems through ETFs. Multiple asset management companies have been approved to launch themed ETFs, with funds indirectly entering the blockchain through financial channels, reshaping the allocation pattern of assets.

These changes in macro variables are driving the opening of a new pricing era. Crypto assets, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum, are transitioning from a liquidity bubble stage to an institutional value acceptance stage, becoming direct beneficiaries under the restructuring of the macro monetary system.

2. The Institutional Logic and Diffusion Trends of Coin-Stock Strategies

Entering 2025, the coin-stock strategy is no longer limited to single enterprise experiments, but has spread to a larger range of publicly listed companies as a financial structure that combines strategic and accounting advantages. By the end of July, more than 35 publicly listed companies worldwide have clearly incorporated Bitcoin into their balance sheets, with 13 also allocating ETH, and another 5 attempting to allocate mainstream altcoins such as SOL, AVAX, and FET.

The first factor supporting this diffusion trend is the change in the institutional environment. The "CLARITY Act" establishes a certification mechanism for "mature blockchain systems," directly incorporating core encryption assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum into commodity attribute regulation, stripping the SEC of its securities regulatory authority, and creating legal legitimacy for companies to allocate these assets in their financial reports.

Secondly, from the perspective of capital structure, the coin-stock strategy creates unprecedented financing flexibility. Companies that allocate encryption assets not only achieve a higher price-to-sales ratio and price-to-book ratio in the capital market due to the valuation premium brought by the rise in stock prices, but can also use the encryption assets themselves as collateral to participate in new financial operations such as on-chain lending, derivative hedging, and cross-chain asset securitization, achieving a dual-track financing system.

In addition, the coin-stock strategy has also triggered a change in investor behavior patterns. The market has begun to reprice the valuation models of these companies, and stock prices exhibit a highly correlated movement with coin prices. An increasing number of hedge funds and structured products view these "high coin-weight" stocks as alternatives to ETFs or proxy tools for exposure to encryption assets, increasing their allocation weight in traditional portfolios.

From a regulatory strategic perspective, the diffusion of the coin-stock strategy is also seen as an extension tool for the United States to maintain its "dollar hegemony" in the global financial order. Against the backdrop of a rising global trend in CBDC pilot programs, the United States has chosen to shape a decentralized dollar network through stablecoin policies and a "regulatable crypto market." Public companies, as a bridge connecting on-chain assets with traditional finance, undertake this function.

As more and more US-listed companies adopt coin-stock strategies, listed companies in the Asia-Pacific, Europe, and emerging markets are also beginning to follow suit, attempting to negotiate compliance space through regional regulatory frameworks. Countries like Singapore, the UAE, and Switzerland are actively revising securities laws, accounting standards, and tax mechanisms to open institutional pathways for their domestic companies to allocate encryption assets, creating a competitive landscape for the global capital market's acceptance of encryption assets.

III. Compliance Trends and Financial Structure Transformation

In 2025, the global crypto asset market is at a historical juncture where the institutionalization wave is accelerating. The core role of regulation has evolved from "enforcer" to "institution designer" and "market guide," reflecting a renewed understanding of the structural impact of national governance systems on crypto assets. With the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, the implementation of stablecoin legislation, the initiation of accounting standard reforms, and the reshaping of the capital market's risk and value assessment mechanisms for digital assets, the trend of compliance has become an intrinsic driving force for the transformation of financial structures. Crypto assets are gradually being embedded into the institutional network of mainstream financial systems.

The core of institutionalization trends is first reflected in the clarification of regulatory frameworks and the gradual relaxation of regulations. The United States has successively passed multiple bills, providing unprecedented clarity in areas such as the identification of commodity attributes, exemption conditions for token issuance, custodial requirements for stablecoins, KYC/AML regulations, and the applicable boundaries of accounting standards. The most structurally impactful is the classification system for "commodity attributes," which views basic public chain assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum as tradable commodities, clearly excluding them from securities law regulation.

At the same time, major global financial centers are competing to promote localized institutional reforms, creating a competitive landscape where "regulatory lowlands" transform into "regulatory highlands." Singapore, Hong Kong, Abu Dhabi, Switzerland, and the UK have all introduced multi-tiered licensing systems, incorporating exchanges, custodians, brokers, market makers, and asset managers into differentiated regulatory frameworks, establishing clear thresholds for institutional entry.

Under the impetus of the system, the inherent logic of the financial structure has also undergone profound changes:

1. Asset class reconstruction. The proportion of encryption assets in the allocation strategies of large asset management institutions is increasing year by year, from less than 0.3% in global institutional allocation in 2022 to over 1.2% in 2025, and it is expected to exceed 3% in 2026.

2. Standardization and diversification of financial products. The market has rapidly derived various product forms embedded in traditional financial structures, such as crypto ETFs with volatility protection, bond-type products linked to stablecoin interest rates, and on-chain data-driven ESG asset indices.

3. Transformation of settlement and custody models. The joint recognition of three "compliant on-chain custody" institutions by the U.S. SEC and CFTC marks the formal establishment of a bridge between asset ownership, custody responsibilities, and legal accounting entities for on-chain assets.

Moreover, the institutionalization of encryption assets is not only a process of regulation adapting to the market, but also an attempt by the sovereign credit system to incorporate digital assets into the macro financial governance structure. As the daily trading volume of stablecoins exceeds $30 trillion and begins to undertake actual payment and clearing functions in some emerging markets, the attitudes of central banks towards encryption assets are becoming increasingly complex.

From a macro perspective, the essence of the institutionalization of encryption assets is the adaptive response and evolution of the global financial structure under the wave of digitization. The financial structure of the 21st century is reconstructing the basic logic of resource flow and capital pricing in a more distributed, modular, and transparent manner. As a key variable in this structural evolution, encryption assets are no longer outliers, but rather digital resources that are manageable, auditable, and taxable.

IV. Conclusion: Embracing the New Pattern of the Crypto Market

In July 2025, Ethereum will celebrate its tenth anniversary, and the crypto market will have transitioned from early experimentation to institutional recognition. The widespread adoption of coin-stock strategies symbolizes the deep integration of traditional finance and encryption assets.

This cycle is not just about the market starting; it is also about the reconstruction of structure and logic: from macro monetary policy to corporate assets, from encryption infrastructure to financial governance models, encryption assets have truly entered the category of institutional asset allocation for the first time.

In the next 2-3 years, the crypto market will evolve into a "on-chain native yield + compliant financial interface + stablecoin-driven" trinary structure. The coin-stock strategy is just the prologue; a deeper integration of capital and evolution of governance models is just beginning.